Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding / BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor market slightly upward • Ahold Delhaize / Unilever | gap between prices for A-brands and private label is widening • IMCD | acquires YCAM in South Korea • Unilever | sells Conimex brand to Paulig • Fugro | new financing at improved terms • InPost | deployed its 25,000th APM in Poland • Ebusco | adjusts its organizational structure and provides a commercial update • PostNL | ACM legally not competent to enforce delivery quality for registered mail</li>
</ul>


In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding / BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor market slightly upward • Ahold Delhaize / Unilever | gap between prices for A-brands and private label is widening • IMCD | acquires YCAM in South Korea • Unilever | sells Conimex brand to Paulig • Fugro | new financing at improved terms • InPost | deployed its 25,000th APM in Poland • Ebusco | adjusts its organizational structure and provides a commercial update • PostNL | ACM legally not competent to enforce delivery quality for registered mail


<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding / BE Semiconductor Industries | brightened outlook for semiconductor equipment sales • Black Friday/Sinterklaas update | fewer debit card payments during Sinterklaas week</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding / BE Semiconductor Industries | brightened outlook for semiconductor equipment sales • Black Friday/Sinterklaas update | fewer debit card payments during Sinterklaas week

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 December (ASM International | ASML Holding | BE Semiconductor Industries | Black Friday/Sinterklaas update)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kkr-said-weigh-takeover-bid-065550154.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that KKR has made a non-binding, preliminary approach to taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> private. ASMPT has been the subject of takeover rumours in the past.</li>
<li>The trading patterns of the substantial shareholders suggest a willingness to exit. However, past privatisation rumours suggest issues with the offeror matching key shareholders' price expectations. </li>
<li>A binding proposal is unlikely as the timing would be viewed as opportunistic, with the recent market rally eroding a potential takeover premium and ASMPT’s premium multiple compared to peers.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that KKR has made a non-binding, preliminary approach to taking ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) private. ASMPT has been the subject of takeover rumours in the past.
The trading patterns of the substantial shareholders suggest a willingness to exit. However, past privatisation rumours suggest issues with the offeror matching key shareholders' price expectations. 
A binding proposal is unlikely as the timing would be viewed as opportunistic, with the recent market rally eroding a potential takeover premium and ASMPT’s premium multiple compared to peers.


ASMPT (522 HK): Don’t Bet on a KKR Privatisation

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY</li>
<li>Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY</li>
<li>CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY
Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY
CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.


KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Summary: 
<ul>
<li>
TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.</li>
<li>
LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.</li>
<li>
MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.</li>
<li>
SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.</li>
<li>
TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.</li>
<li>
BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.</li>
</ul>

Summary: 


TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.

LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.

MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.

SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.

TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.

BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.


Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Netherlands

BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. produces integrated semiconductor assembly equipment.  The Company designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and services machines that manufacture semiconductor packages, which provide the connection between the chip and other electronic components and protect the chip.  BE also produces automated molding and plating machines, and manufactures leadframes.

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BE Semiconductor Industries NV (BESI NA)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 18 December (ASM Int'l / ASML Holding / Besi | Ahold Delhaize | Unilever | IMCD | Fugro | InPost | Ebusco | PostNL)

In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding / BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor market...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 December (ASM International | ASML Holding | BE Semiconductor Industries | Black Friday/Sinterklaas update)

In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding / BE Semiconductor Industries | brightened outlook for semiconductor equipment sales • Black...

The IDEA!

ASMPT (522 HK): Don’t Bet on a KKR Privatisation

ASMPT's offer period for the potential privatisation ends. Reuters reports that KKR backed out due to regulatory and geopolitical risks, such as...

Arun George

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

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