Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oil is likely to be the next commodity to join the party </li>
<li>We see an asymmetric opportunity in the oil and gas sector</li>
<li>We introduce a basket of Asian oil and gas E&amp;P stocks to take advantage of the opportunity </li>
</ul>


Oil is likely to be the next commodity to join the party 
We see an asymmetric opportunity in the oil and gas sector
We introduce a basket of Asian oil and gas E&amp;P stocks to take advantage of the opportunity 


High Conviction Idea: Oil Is the New Gold!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.</li>
<li>The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? </li>
<li>And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? </li>
</ul>


There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? 
And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? 


Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a>'s ¥3,232/share bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a>, contingent on DD being granted and passed. should be enough to get <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> triggered. There's more to come.</li>
<li>Concurrent with dispatching its Bidder's Statement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, IFM lodges its own Panel application, specifically centred on Chicago Skyway's right of first offer involving Ontario Teachers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>, who's upstream transiton has proved challenging, announced CEO, non-executive chair, and NED changes/retirements; and following an independent review, a move towards a smaller board.</li>
</ul>



LY (4689 JP)'s ¥3,232/share bid for Kakaku.com (2371 JP), contingent on DD being granted and passed. should be enough to get Digital Garage (4819 JP) triggered. There's more to come.
Concurrent with dispatching its Bidder's Statement for Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), IFM lodges its own Panel application, specifically centred on Chicago Skyway's right of first offer involving Ontario Teachers

Strike Energy (STX AU), who's upstream transiton has proved challenging, announced CEO, non-executive chair, and NED changes/retirements; and following an independent review, a move towards a smaller board.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakadu, Atlas Arteria, Strike Energy, New World Development

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>'s transition from a pure explorer to an upstream gas producer hasn't exactly gone to plan. </li>
<li>Strike started pumping &amp; selling gas from its Perth-basin Walyering project in September 2023; and green lit a gas-fired peaking power plant in November 2024.</li>
<li>The share price is now at a six-year low. Yesterday, Strike announced CEO, non-executive chair, and NED changes/retirements; and following an independent review, a move towards a smaller board.</li>
</ul>



Strike Energy (STX AU)'s transition from a pure explorer to an upstream gas producer hasn't exactly gone to plan. 
Strike started pumping &amp; selling gas from its Perth-basin Walyering project in September 2023; and green lit a gas-fired peaking power plant in November 2024.
The share price is now at a six-year low. Yesterday, Strike announced CEO, non-executive chair, and NED changes/retirements; and following an independent review, a move towards a smaller board.


<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 4th May, published ~midday on the 8th May.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$767mn into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$265mn out of  "Diversified Metals". Net shorts increased A$2.8bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths (WOW AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/james-hardie-industries-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10937:1" rel="noopener">James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beach-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:795:1" rel="noopener">Beach Energy (BPT AU)</a>, and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 4th May, published ~midday on the 8th May.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$767mn into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$265mn out of  "Diversified Metals". Net shorts increased A$2.8bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU), Woolworths (WOW AU), James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU), Beach Energy (BPT AU), andIDP Education (IEL AU).


Aussie Shorts [4 May 2026]: Woodside Petroleum, Woolworths, James Hardie, Beach Energy, IDP Edu.

Australia

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

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Beach Energy (BPT AU)

High Conviction Idea: Oil Is the New Gold!

We would be looking to trim SOME OIL and GAS stock exposure this week as the spot price rises. This would be to buy more in the inevitable...

Rikki Malik

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

Santos Ltd (STO AU) dives ~11% after Abu Dhabi walks away, two days before a formal deadline. "Sensationally ended", as The Australian words it? I...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakadu, Atlas Arteria, Strike Energy, New World Development

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Time To Revisit Strike Energy (STX AU)

Strike is down >40% in the past 12 months. The board overhaul and a new discovery at Walyering are positive. Taking Strike into its fold makes...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts [4 May 2026]: Woodside Petroleum, Woolworths, James Hardie, Beach Energy, IDP Edu.

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$767mn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$265mn out of "Metals". Net...

David Blennerhassett

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