Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Overall US border crossings fell in November 2025, but crossings by air were up Y/Y (again)</li>
<li>Northern crossings fell sharply, down -14% Y/Y; local businesses in US, Canada hit hardest</li>
<li>But crossings at Western air gateways surged, which could imply Asian tourism reslience</li>
</ul>


Overall US border crossings fell in November 2025, but crossings by air were up Y/Y (again)
Northern crossings fell sharply, down -14% Y/Y; local businesses in US, Canada hit hardest
But crossings at Western air gateways surged, which could imply Asian tourism reslience


US Customs & Border Protection Data: Northern Crossings Down, Western (Asian?) Air Crossings Firmer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

<ul>
<li>Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months</li>
<li>Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel</li>
<li>Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us</li>
</ul>


Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months
Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel
Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand  (December 2025)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hainan Meilan International Airport / Event-Driven

Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)

<ul>
<li>On 30 April, Haikou Meilan International Airport entered a SPA with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-airport-infrastructure-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1233:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Airport Infrastructure (600515 CH)</a> to sell its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)</a> 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 (HK$10.62).</li>
<li>The SPA precondition is satisfied, and the SPA will be completed within 20 business days. Completion will trigger an unconditional MGO at HK$10.62.</li>
<li>Tendering is likely to be low as the offer is unattractive. At the last close and for a mid-February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.2%/1.1%.</li>
</ul>


On 30 April, Haikou Meilan International Airport entered a SPA with Hainan Airport Infrastructure (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 (HK$10.62).
The SPA precondition is satisfied, and the SPA will be completed within 20 business days. Completion will trigger an unconditional MGO at HK$10.62.
Tendering is likely to be low as the offer is unattractive. At the last close and for a mid-February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.2%/1.1%.


Meilan Airport (357 HK): SPA Precondition Satisfied, Setting up an Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com</li>
<li>But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com
But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y
We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive


Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

China

Beijing Capital International Airport Company Limited is primarily engaged in the operation and management of Beijing Capital International Airport, offering both aeronautical and non-aeronautical services. Its aeronautical services include aircraft movements, passenger facilities, ground support, and fire-fighting, while non-aeronautical services encompass retail, advertising, and property leasing. The company was incorporated on October 15, 1999, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)

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Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)

US Customs & Border Protection Data: Northern Crossings Down, Western (Asian?) Air Crossings Firmer

US border crossing data from November 2025 shows weakness in travel activity in most regions and by most travel modes. But air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

There could be 74 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 64 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand (December 2025)

The pace of air travel growth improved markedly in the October-November period, despite weakness in two key outbound markets. Although it's a...

Tracking Traffic

Meilan Airport (357 HK): SPA Precondition Satisfied, Setting up an Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

Tendering is likely to be low as the offer is unattractive. At the last close and for a mid-February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is...

Arun George

Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Trip.com reported Q3 results on Monday after the US close. Revenue growth was fine, but core margins continue to fall. We view the shares as...

Tracking Traffic

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