Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese domestic and outbound air travel activity rebounded sharply in July - why?</li>
<li>If we're right about the reasons for July's recovery in traffic, bounce likely to be short-lived</li>
<li>We expect platform Trip.com to confirm a weak outlook when it reports Q226 results</li>
</ul>


Chinese domestic and outbound air travel activity rebounded sharply in July - why?
If we're right about the reasons for July's recovery in traffic, bounce likely to be short-lived
We expect platform Trip.com to confirm a weak outlook when it reports Q226 results


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Air Travel Growth Rebounded in July | Why? And Is It Sustainable?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Data from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. </li>
<li>Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.</li>
<li>An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Data from Trip.com Group (9961 HK) showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. 
Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.
An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Air China (H) (753 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK).  


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

<ul>
<li>In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions</li>
<li>A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far</li>
<li>Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year</li>
</ul>


In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year


12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

<ul>
<li>China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.</li>
<li>The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International (308 HK)</a> have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.</li>
</ul>


China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.
The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) and China Travel International (308 HK) have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.

Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.


China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices </li>
<li>Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right </li>
<li>Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia</li>
</ul>


China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices 
Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right 
Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia


China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

China

Beijing Capital International Airport Company Limited is primarily engaged in the operation and management of Beijing Capital International Airport, offering both aeronautical and non-aeronautical services. Its aeronautical services include aircraft movements, passenger facilities, ground support, and fire-fighting, while non-aeronautical services encompass retail, advertising, and property leasing. The company was incorporated on October 15, 1999, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)

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Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Air Travel Growth Rebounded in July | Why? And Is It Sustainable?

After weak growth in Q226, Chinese domestic and outbound air travel activity suddenly rebounded in July. But is the improvement sustainable? We...

Tracking Traffic

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

China's recent policy to allow visa-free travel for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for up to 15 days...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Air Travel Growth Rebounded in July | Why? And Is It Sustainable?

After weak growth in Q226, Chinese domestic and outbound air travel activity suddenly rebounded in July. But is the improvement sustainable? We...

Tracking Traffic

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

China's recent policy to allow visa-free travel for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for up to 15 days...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

​China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mo Aziz

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...