Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Uncertainty undermines prospects of China’s homegrown Covid antivirals</li><li>China vows to get tough on online crimes behind cyberbullying</li><li>Officials face steep pay cuts under China’s financial regulatory overhaul</li></ul>

Uncertainty undermines prospects of China’s homegrown Covid antiviralsChina vows to get tough on online crimes behind cyberbullyingOfficials face steep pay cuts under China’s financial regulatory overhaul

CX Daily: Uncertainty Undermines Prospects of China’s Homegrown Covid Antivirals

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Monday evening in the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session</li>
<li>As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines</li>
<li>Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats</li>
</ul>


On Monday evening in the US, Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session
As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines
Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats


Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>China online advertising market revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB508.8bn in 2022 as per IMZ, the first YoY revenue drop in the past 7 years, but compared to offline advertising this performance is relatively more resilient.</li><li>On a QoQ basis, the online advertising market has been showing recovery signs since 3Q22.</li><li>Online ad market revenue returned to positive 6.5% YoY growth in November 2022. Given the pace of economic recovery, we expect online ads sector should deliver strong rebound from 2Q23E onwards. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China online advertising market revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB508.8bn in 2022 as per IMZ, the first YoY revenue drop in the past 7 years, but compared to offline advertising this performance is relatively more resilient.On a QoQ basis, the online advertising market has been showing recovery signs since 3Q22.Online ad market revenue returned to positive 6.5% YoY growth in November 2022. Given the pace of economic recovery, we expect online ads sector should deliver strong rebound from 2Q23E onwards. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – China Online Advertising: Onset for Gradual Recovery in 2023E

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Many newcomers are trying to replicate Shein’s path, but none has proven to be successful, as Shein’s moat in supply chain requires longterm down-to-earth work. </li>
<li>PDD’s Temu will be Shein’s biggest challenger because it is pursuing a different model. Instead of penetrating into the supply chain, Temu offers value-for-money, fair quality products from all categories.</li>
<li>Although Shein’s foundation remains solid (ladies’ apparel + developed countries), growth is slowing down. We reiterate BUY to PDD and BABA and SELL to SE and VIPS after studying Shein.</li>
</ul>


Many newcomers are trying to replicate Shein’s path, but none has proven to be successful, as Shein’s moat in supply chain requires longterm down-to-earth work. 
PDD’s Temu will be Shein’s biggest challenger because it is pursuing a different model. Instead of penetrating into the supply chain, Temu offers value-for-money, fair quality products from all categories.
Although Shein’s foundation remains solid (ladies’ apparel + developed countries), growth is slowing down. We reiterate BUY to PDD and BABA and SELL to SE and VIPS after studying Shein.


Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

<ul>
<li>We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.</li>
<li>We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.</li>
</ul>


We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.


China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

China

Beijing Douyin Information Service Co. Ltd. provides online information and contents. The Company develops and operates short video platform, original short video community, news platform, and other related products. Beijing Douyin Information Service offers services worldwide.

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ByteDance (1439927D CH)

CX Daily: Uncertainty Undermines Prospects of China’s Homegrown Covid Antivirals

Uncertainty undermines prospects of China’s homegrown Covid antivirals. China vows to get tough on online crimes behind cyberbullying.

Caixin Global

Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

As China emerges from Covid, old challenges remain for Trip.com. After posting solid Q422 results and pointing to signs of a strong recovery, these...

Daniel Hellberg

China Internet – China Online Advertising: Onset for Gradual Recovery in 2023E

China online advertising market revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB508.8bn in 2022 as per IMZ, the first YoY revenue drop in the past 7 years

CMB International

Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

A deep dive into Shein, one of the largest fashion retailers in the world. We give a detailed breakdown to some of the key metrics, and reveal...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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