Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Aukus makes a ruckus</li>
<li>Comprehensive and progressive? Sign us up.</li>
<li>Crackdowns leave China with no top ten firms </li>
<li>The red Shaanxi sun in our hearts</li>
<li>A nuclear revolution cranks up in the Gobi</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li><div>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</div></li></ul></div>

China News That Matters
Aukus makes a ruckus
Comprehensive and progressive? Sign us up.
Crackdowns leave China with no top ten firms 
The red Shaanxi sun in our hearts
A nuclear revolution cranks up in the Gobi
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suning-com-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9178:1" rel="noopener">Suning.com (002024 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1439927D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saudi-aramco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27317:1" rel="noopener">Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Tencent (700 HK), iQIYI Inc (IQ US), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Suning.com (002024 CH), Trip.com (TCOM US), DiDi Global (DIDI US), NIO Inc (NIO US), ByteDance (1439927D CH), Reliance Industries (RIL IN), Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), JD Health (6618 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) 

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 20 August 2021

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China’s tech sector has been in the spotlight in recent days. Beijing has released a series of rules aiming to remake private education and tech sectors. to curb cost pressure and better serve ordinary people.  we believe the magnitude of policy change on private education sector is unprecedent, which could surprise investors. This negative sentiments further spurs the fear of  anti-trust and unfair competition scrutiny on China Internet sector. It has led to capital flight from China tech sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> has declined 40% from its high in February this year.</li>
<li>In the newly released policy, the State Council banned foreign capital from investing in education institutions through any approach, including VIE (Variable Interest Entity) structure. This has led to investor concerns whether the ban on foreign investments through VIE will be extended to other sectors. VIE is considered to be the foundation of offshore China ADR listing structure. Our assessment shows that the VIE structure will remain to stay, but the new oversea listings could face more scrutiny from regulators. The paradigm shift could fundamentally benefit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> as the preferred listing venue for offshore China ADR. And the dual-listing status for many China tech giants will remain. </li>
<li>China central bank lowered bank reserve requirement ratio early this month and free up US$154bn from the system. The benchmark 10-year treasury  yield hovered around 2.9%  past few weeks indicating plenty of liquidity. Investors have been speculating that LPR (Loan Prime Rate) might be cut further to stimulate the growth. We believe structural monetary policy operations will continue. Likely, more support will be provided toward green energy, innovations and industry upgrade, but it might remain tightening for property and overcapacity sectors. The upcoming Politburo Meeting in end of July could give more hints about monetary policy stance. More than 40% of China A-share companies have released their 1H earning preview, which delivered 120% year-over-year growth (due to low base by pandemic in 2020). We remain sanguine on China equity market outlook in 2H 2021, but would recommend more clarity on policy for China tech giants.</li>
</ul>


China’s tech sector has been in the spotlight in recent days. Beijing has released a series of rules aiming to remake private education and tech sectors. to curb cost pressure and better serve ordinary people.  we believe the magnitude of policy change on private education sector is unprecedent, which could surprise investors. This negative sentiments further spurs the fear of  anti-trust and unfair competition scrutiny on China Internet sector. It has led to capital flight from China tech sector. Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) has declined 40% from its high in February this year.
In the newly released policy, the State Council banned foreign capital from investing in education institutions through any approach, including VIE (Variable Interest Entity) structure. This has led to investor concerns whether the ban on foreign investments through VIE will be extended to other sectors. VIE is considered to be the foundation of offshore China ADR listing structure. Our assessment shows that the VIE structure will remain to stay, but the new oversea listings could face more scrutiny from regulators. The paradigm shift could fundamentally benefit HKEX (388 HK) as the preferred listing venue for offshore China ADR. And the dual-listing status for many China tech giants will remain. 
China central bank lowered bank reserve requirement ratio early this month and free up US$154bn from the system. The benchmark 10-year treasury  yield hovered around 2.9%  past few weeks indicating plenty of liquidity. Investors have been speculating that LPR (Loan Prime Rate) might be cut further to stimulate the growth. We believe structural monetary policy operations will continue. Likely, more support will be provided toward green energy, innovations and industry upgrade, but it might remain tightening for property and overcapacity sectors. The upcoming Politburo Meeting in end of July could give more hints about monetary policy stance. More than 40% of China A-share companies have released their 1H earning preview, which delivered 120% year-over-year growth (due to low base by pandemic in 2020). We remain sanguine on China equity market outlook in 2H 2021, but would recommend more clarity on policy for China tech giants.


China Equity Strategy: Tug of War, Policy Uncertainty and Plenty Liquidity

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), LUKOIL (LKOH RM), ByteDance (1460967D CH), Tencent (700 HK)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 9 July 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. 
Companies mentioned this week:
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-mart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6993:1" rel="noopener">E Mart Inc (139480 KS)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. 
Companies mentioned this week:
Prosus (PRX NA), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), ByteDance (1460967D CH), Naver Corp (035420 KS), E Mart Inc (139480 KS) 

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 18 June 2021

China

Beijing Douyin Information Service Co. Ltd. provides online information and contents. The Company develops and operates short video platform, original short video community, news platform, and other related products. Beijing Douyin Information Service offers services worldwide.

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ByteDance (1439927D CH)

AUKUS/ CPTPP/ Crackdowns/ CCP/ TMSR-LF1

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 20 August 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

China Equity Strategy: Tug of War, Policy Uncertainty and Plenty Liquidity

We remain sanguine on China equity market outlook in 2H 2021 given the earning growth and plenty liquidity, but would wait for more clarity on...

Roger Xie

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 9 July 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 18 June 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

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