Ex-Buyside Principal, now doing Independent Secondary Research on Indian Equities

Pawan Sachdeva

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In preparing this insight, I have tried to compare ACC (as an Indian Cement Sector Proxy) to Holcim and Anhui Conch. &nbsp;<div><ul><li>I discuss Long Term trends of cement pricing in India, environmental issues and relative cost structures.&nbsp; </li><li>I believe that this work might aid fund managers / analysts in deriving a better view on the cement sector.&nbsp; </li><li>Cement Company Managements can also use this as an analysis framework to benchmark their own performance.&nbsp; </li><li>Lastly, I also try to raise thoughts on whether 2015-2020 is like 2003-2008 for the Indian stock market.&nbsp;</li></ul><blockquote>My work examines publicly available data spanning 15 years, going back to 1999.&nbsp;</blockquote></div>

In preparing this insight, I have tried to compare ACC (as an Indian Cement Sector Proxy) to Holcim and Anhui Conch. &nbsp;I discuss Long Term trends of cement pricing in India, environmental issues and relative cost structures.&nbsp; I believe that this work might aid fund managers / analysts in deriving a better view on the cement sector.&nbsp; Cement Company Managements can also use this as an analysis framework to benchmark their own performance.&nbsp; Lastly, I also try to raise thoughts on whether 2015-2020 is like 2003-2008 for the Indian stock market.&nbsp;My work examines publicly available data spanning 15 years, going back to 1999.&nbsp;

ACC, Holcim & Anhui Conch: A Cross-Country Benchmarking Study of Cement Sector Leaders

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/203678/What's%20Up%20(&amp;%20Up)%20With%20Shandong%20Hi-Speed%20(412%20HK)" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What's Up (&amp; Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?</a>, I thought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)</a> was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months. </li>
<li>My guess was that SDHG's high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.</li>
<li>The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG's shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride. </li>
</ul>


In What's Up (&amp; Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months. 
My guess was that SDHG's high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG's shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride. 


Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Back on the 18th Feb 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> (SHS) closed its unconditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-new-energy-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK)</a>. Shortly thereafter, SHS' share price took off.</li>
<li>SHS is now up 190% in the past six months. And ~1800% since Covid.</li>
<li>What gives? It's not index related. And forward earnings do not justify the move. This looks like a bubble. Short interest is on the move.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 18th Feb 2025, Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) (SHS) closed its unconditional Offer for Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK). Shortly thereafter, SHS' share price took off.
SHS is now up 190% in the past six months. And ~1800% since Covid.
What gives? It's not index related. And forward earnings do not justify the move. This looks like a bubble. Short interest is on the move.


What's Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?

<ul>
<li>Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15597:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)</a>, were considering taking Japfa private.</li>
<li>This was discussed in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/174028/%20https:/skr.ma/iKVsA" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer</a>. Then crickets. </li>
<li>The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That's probably enough to get this over the line. </li>
</ul>


Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), were considering taking Japfa private.
This was discussed in Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer. Then crickets. 
The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That's probably enough to get this over the line. 


Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

Hong Kong

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group invests in, develops, constructs, operates, and manages photovoltaic power, wind power, and clean heat supply services in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides engineering, procurement, construction, and technical consultancy services for clean energy projects. It was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group (1250 HK)

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Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group (1250 HK)

ACC, Holcim & Anhui Conch: A Cross-Country Benchmarking Study of Cement Sector Leaders

In preparing this insight, I have tried to compare ACC (as an Indian Cement Sector Proxy) to Holcim and Anhui Conch. I discuss Long Term trends...

Pawan Sachdeva

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

I'd look to get some exposure here. But I wouldn't chase it. I doubt the days of large share price gyrations are a thing of the past.

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

What's Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?

This looks like a bubble. My guess is that high shareholder conentration is still very much present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a...

David Blennerhassett

Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

Scheme Doc dispatched. 15th April Scheme Meeting. Payment on or around the 30th May. With a fair value range of S$0.53 to S$0.56/share, the IFA...

David Blennerhassett

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