Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Tech Index is more widely-followed than many think, and it is reasonably concentrated, so outperformance and underperformance by big names means capping and re-capping.</li>
<li>This time, those flows are worth about 8% of the index in terms of one-way flows. Meituan, Xiaomi, JD.com, Tencent and Kuaishou Tech DOWN. Li Auto back up. </li>
<li>Those who have pre-positioned on the big buy have recently gotten hurt. There are some FAF changes which are less predictable and may be interesting.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Tech Index is more widely-followed than many think, and it is reasonably concentrated, so outperformance and underperformance by big names means capping and re-capping.
This time, those flows are worth about 8% of the index in terms of one-way flows. Meituan, Xiaomi, JD.com, Tencent and Kuaishou Tech DOWN. Li Auto back up. 
Those who have pre-positioned on the big buy have recently gotten hurt. There are some FAF changes which are less predictable and may be interesting.


HSTECH June 2024 Rebal - No Changes But Big Capping Flows, As Expected; 8% US$1.6bn One-Way

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Kuaishou to report C4Q23 revenue, IFRS op. profit and IFRS net income in-line, 34% and 29% vs. consensus, thanks to margin improvements;</li>
<li>Playlet continued to generate significant organic traffic, leading to decreasing sales marketing cost and growth in advertising inventories. We further expect AI to drive playlet market expansions;</li>
<li>E-Commerce GMV growth was robust. Kuaishou will likely increase take rate in the future. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$79, implying an 17x PE.</li>
</ul>


We expect Kuaishou to report C4Q23 revenue, IFRS op. profit and IFRS net income in-line, 34% and 29% vs. consensus, thanks to margin improvements;
Playlet continued to generate significant organic traffic, leading to decreasing sales marketing cost and growth in advertising inventories. We further expect AI to drive playlet market expansions;
E-Commerce GMV growth was robust. Kuaishou will likely increase take rate in the future. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$79, implying an 17x PE.


[Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$79) TP Change]: Robust Organic Traffic Supports Robust Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We expect Kuaishou (KS) to deliver solid 4Q23E results, with revenue +15% YoY (in line with our estimate) and adj. NPM at 10.7% (vs. prior estimate of 8.7%).</li><li>By segment, we expect GMV/other rev to rise 30% (in line)/35% YoY, attributable to strong 11.11 promotions and ramp-up of the pan shelf-based mall.</li><li>Ads revenue is likely to see +20% YoY growth (in line), driven by robust internal ads and recovery of external ads (double-digit growth YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Kuaishou (KS) to deliver solid 4Q23E results, with revenue +15% YoY (in line with our estimate) and adj. NPM at 10.7% (vs. prior estimate of 8.7%).By segment, we expect GMV/other rev to rise 30% (in line)/35% YoY, attributable to strong 11.11 promotions and ramp-up of the pan shelf-based mall.Ads revenue is likely to see +20% YoY growth (in line), driven by robust internal ads and recovery of external ads (double-digit growth YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Resilient 4Q23E with Better Margin Outlook

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.

We believe that JOYY (YY US) is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  Baidu (BIDU US)  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of Baidu (BIDU US) ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

HSTECH June 2024 Rebal - No Changes But Big Capping Flows, As Expected; 8% US$1.6bn One-Way

Quiddity did not expect any name changes to the HSTECH index in June 2024 but we expected big flows because of significant capping impact, mostly...

Travis Lundy

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$79) TP Change]: Robust Organic Traffic Supports Robust Growth

Kuaishou's revenue and profits are expected to meet expectations, thanks to improved margins. The company's playlet and e-commerce businesses are...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Resilient 4Q23E with Better Margin Outlook

We expect Kuaishou (KS) to deliver solid 4Q23E results, with revenue +15% YoY (in line with our estimate) and adj. NPM at 10.7% (vs. prior estimate...

CMB International

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

YY to broadcaster on May 21: “YY and Baidu live streaming channels will start sharing data. We asked our live broadcasters to welcome the new...

JL Warren Capital

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSTECH June 2024 Rebal - No Changes But Big Capping Flows, As Expected; 8% US$1.6bn One-Way

Quiddity did not expect any name changes to the HSTECH index in June 2024 but we expected big flows because of significant capping impact, mostly...

Travis Lundy

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$79) TP Change]: Robust Organic Traffic Supports Robust Growth

​Kuaishou's revenue and profits are expected to meet expectations, thanks to improved margins. The company's playlet and e-commerce businesses are...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Resilient 4Q23E with Better Margin Outlook

We expect Kuaishou (KS) to deliver solid 4Q23E results, with revenue +15% YoY (in line with our estimate) and adj. NPM at 10.7% (vs. prior estimate...

CMB International

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

YY to broadcaster on May 21: “YY and Baidu live streaming channels will start sharing data. We asked our live broadcasters to welcome the new...

JL Warren Capital

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou's revenue and profits are expected to meet expectations, thanks to improved margins. The company's playlet and e-commerce businesses are...