Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13644:1">Coach Inc (COH US)</a> fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The recent consumer and producer price indexes had people feeling relieved that pricing pressures seem to have abated somewhat.  CPI came it below expectations at 1.3% but still firmly positive while PPI ticked from its long term decline to a year over year decline of 0.8%.  This has many believing the pricing pressures are near an end in China and that broader based price level increases returning.  However, as with all things China it is important to look behind the broader based data.The PPI…

The recent consumer and producer price indexes had people feeling relieved that pricing pressures seem to have abated somewhat.  CPI came it below expectations at 1.3% but still firmly positive while PPI ticked from its long term decline to a year over year decline of 0.8%.  This has many believing the pricing pressures are near an end in China and that broader based price level increases returning.  However, as with all things China it is important to look behind the broader based data.The PPI…

Breaking Down Chinese Inflation Data: More Than Meets the Eye

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6% YTD YoY, only slightly slower pace compared to 26.7% in July, and 29% in June. On a single-month, year-on-year basis the growth picked up to 19.1% from 16.7% in July.National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) declined by 8.5% on YTD YoY basis, more negative than the 7.8% decline in July.In absolute terms…

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6% YTD YoY, only slightly slower pace compared to 26.7% in July, and 29% in June. On a single-month, year-on-year basis the growth picked up to 19.1% from 16.7% in July.National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) declined by 8.5% on YTD YoY basis, more negative than the 7.8% decline in July.In absolute terms…

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slightly Slower at 25.6% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Aug), Land Sales Still Low

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Belle International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Following the release of Belle’s second-quarter operating data, we have changed our 2017 footwear same-store sales decline assumption from 16.6% to 14.0% and our mainland average store unit decline from 2.0% to 2.2%. Belle’s total average retail store count in China was up by 2.1% year over year and down by 0.7% sequentially to 20,738 in the second quarter. We also fine-tuned our 2017 sportswear and apparel same-store sales growth from 8.5% to 6.0%, offset by an increase in average store unit growth from 9.7% to 10.0%.We are hesitant to reduce our same-store sales decline for the footwear segment beyond this year, as we are not yet confident that Belle will weather the structural challenge from online and new channels. As a result, our fair value estimate is HKD 4.9 per share, and shares are fairly valued. Our no-moat rating is unchanged.Analyst: Chelsey Tam

Following the release of Belle’s second-quarter operating data, we have changed our 2017 footwear same-store sales decline assumption from 16.6% to 14.0% and our mainland average store unit decline from 2.0% to 2.2%. Belle’s total average retail store count in China was up by 2.1% year over year and down by 0.7% sequentially to 20,738 in the second quarter. We also fine-tuned our 2017 sportswear and apparel same-store sales growth from 8.5% to 6.0%, offset by an increase in average store unit growth from 9.7% to 10.0%.We are hesitant to reduce our same-store sales decline for the footwear segment beyond this year, as we are not yet confident that Belle will weather the structural challenge from online and new channels. As a result, our fair value estimate is HKD 4.9 per share, and shares are fairly valued. Our no-moat rating is unchanged.Analyst: Chelsey Tam

Belle's Footwear Same-Store Sales Decline Improved

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

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Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

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<ul>
<li> In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.</li>
<li>A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.</li>
<li>We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…</li>
</ul>


 In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.
A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.
We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…


China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

China

Belle International Holdings Limited retails woman's footwear.  The Company operates retail stores in the Peoples Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, and the United States.

Belle International Holdings (2129452D HK)

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Belle International Holdings (2129452D HK)

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16...

Daniel Hellberg

Breaking Down Chinese Inflation Data: More Than Meets the Eye

The recent consumer and producer price indexes had people feeling relieved that pricing pressures seem to have abated somewhat. CPI came it below...

Christopher Balding

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slightly Slower at 25.6% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Aug), Land Sales Still Low

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6%...

Robert Ciemniak

Belle's Footwear Same-Store Sales Decline Improved

Following the release of Belle’s second-quarter operating data, we have changed our 2017 footwear same-store sales decline assumption from 16.6% to...

Morningstar, Inc.

China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)