IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a> confirmed that it has “<em>received approaches from several parties expressing interest in a potential change of control transaction, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a>.</em>”</li>
<li>Tyro previously rejected a A$1.27 offer from the Potentia consortium. Grok's get-out clause with Potentia sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share.</li>
<li>The last close of A$1.59 is higher than the floor price. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing offer of around A$2.</li>
</ul>



Tyro Payments (TYR AU) confirmed that it has “received approaches from several parties expressing interest in a potential change of control transaction, including Westpac Banking (WBC AU).”
Tyro previously rejected a A$1.27 offer from the Potentia consortium. Grok's get-out clause with Potentia sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share.
The last close of A$1.59 is higher than the floor price. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing offer of around A$2.


Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 30th): Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ANZ got about half its equity raise done, with the shortfall bookbuild only being 5% of the institutional total and clearing above TERP. Now the retail rights.</li>
<li>Risk management mechanisms suggest rights trade expensive to stock near-term, then cheapen, as ANZ shares experience some selling pressure from arbs.</li>
<li>But ANZ is cheap. Relative weakness on FY2-FY3 EPS forecasts has contributed to 25% underperformance vs Peers since January but <em>Relative Multiple Deterioration</em> has contributed more.</li>
</ul>


ANZ got about half its equity raise done, with the shortfall bookbuild only being 5% of the institutional total and clearing above TERP. Now the retail rights.
Risk management mechanisms suggest rights trade expensive to stock near-term, then cheapen, as ANZ shares experience some selling pressure from arbs.
But ANZ is cheap. Relative weakness on FY2-FY3 EPS forecasts has contributed to 25% underperformance vs Peers since January but Relative Multiple Deterioration has contributed more.


ANZ's Equity Raise Successful, Trading at TERP, and STILL Cheap To Peers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.</li>
<li>Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a> on an FY2023 P/E basis.</li>
<li>Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.</li>
</ul>



Suncorp (SUN AU) agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.
Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to Insurance Australia (IAG AU) on an FY2023 P/E basis.
Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.


Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

Equity Capital Markets

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxs7w823ntzt.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">withdrew from discussions on MYOB</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxsfxcgwbpyz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q3 earnings</a> ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. </li>
<li>But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.</li>
</ul>



Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ withdrew from discussions on MYOB.

Q3 earnings ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. 
But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.


ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

Australia

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited offers a variety of banking and other financial services, including first mortgage housing finance, retail and business banking, commercial finance, funds management, treasury and foreign exchange services, superannuation and trustee services. Bendigo also offers internet banking.

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Bendigo And Adelaide Bank (BEN AU)

Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

The floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 30th): Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ANZ's Equity Raise Successful, Trading at TERP, and STILL Cheap To Peers

ANZ has done half its equity raise. Now the retail rights, which trade in the market. Expect them to trade rich first, then cheap as selling...

Travis Lundy

Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to key peer, IAG, on an FY2023 P/E basis. The valuation gap can...

Arun George

ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

ANZ will issue A$3.5bn of equity - an insto block and a tradable rights offer to retail - to buy #7 bank SunCorp Bank. It adds heft, but the ACCC...

Travis Lundy

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