Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash results from continuing operations of AUD 30.5 bn, which attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in loss provision reversals; </li>
<li>Despite the poor result, CBA has chosen to pull on numerous earnings levers to make even these numbers; and </li>
<li>While credit has improved, reserves will need to be buttressed as we head into a period of higher interest rates.   </li>
</ul>


CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash results from continuing operations of AUD 30.5 bn, which attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in loss provision reversals; 
Despite the poor result, CBA has chosen to pull on numerous earnings levers to make even these numbers; and 
While credit has improved, reserves will need to be buttressed as we head into a period of higher interest rates.   


Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Pulling On All Earnings Levers

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Bendigo And Adelaide Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A steep decline in market capitalization may be well overdone</li>
<li>Compared with all domestic peers, BEN offers best value &amp; above average yield</li>
<li>Credit costs can improve dramatically, net interest income accelerating before rate rise</li>
</ul>


A steep decline in market capitalization may be well overdone
Compared with all domestic peers, BEN offers best value &amp; above average yield
Credit costs can improve dramatically, net interest income accelerating before rate rise


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The HFD from ASIC on insolvencies in Australia points to a weak credit metric environment for Australian banks. </li>
<li>Some banks report rising bad loans but relatively stable credit costs, which tends to not last indefinitely. </li>
<li>Far worse insolvencies in many sectors YoY to 30 June should be a window on higher impairment costs for Australian banks.</li>
</ul>


The HFD from ASIC on insolvencies in Australia points to a weak credit metric environment for Australian banks. 
Some banks report rising bad loans but relatively stable credit costs, which tends to not last indefinitely. 
Far worse insolvencies in many sectors YoY to 30 June should be a window on higher impairment costs for Australian banks.


Australia Banks - Insolvencies Data to 30 June 2025 Suggest Weak and Worsening Credit Metrics.

One of Australia’s smaller banks has just announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance for the full year.

One of Australia’s smaller banks has just announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance for the full year. 

Australian Banks – Profit And Dividends Surge

There are many banks globally that have restricted dividends. This is less apparent in Asia. Even so, we are less concerned with temporary deferment or postponement on dividends, as economies reopen and recover.  Their reinstatement will only be an additional positive delta alongside likely lower credit costs. In Asia, there are many banks where yields are over 9% and where capital levels are high, suggesting dividends can remain in place and where many banks, have not deferred, or postponed dividends. When we remember that dividend restrictions were imposed in the more dire days of shutdown, well before the sharp recovery seen in many economies, it makes it even less likely that these restrictions will remain in place for long. And many banks in Asia, continue to pay dividends as normal.

There are many banks globally that have restricted dividends. This is less apparent in Asia. Even so, we are less concerned with temporary deferment or postponement on dividends, as economies reopen and recover.  Their reinstatement will only be an additional positive delta alongside likely lower credit costs. In Asia, there are many banks where yields are over 9% and where capital levels are high, suggesting dividends can remain in place and where many banks, have not deferred, or postponed dividends. When we remember that dividend restrictions were imposed in the more dire days of shutdown, well before the sharp recovery seen in many economies, it makes it even less likely that these restrictions will remain in place for long. And many banks in Asia, continue to pay dividends as normal.  

Australia

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited offers a variety of banking and other financial services, including first mortgage housing finance, retail and business banking, commercial finance, funds management, treasury and foreign exchange services, superannuation and trustee services. Bendigo also offers internet banking.

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Bendigo And Adelaide Bank (BEN AU)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Pulling On All Earnings Levers

CBA: CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash result, attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in provision reversals. Despite the result, CBA did...

Thomas J. Monaco

BEN - A Time to Shine Relative to Peers?

Market capitalization has narrowed dramatically from August 2021, but BEN has seen dramatically improved credit metrics, good growth of net...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Insolvencies Data to 30 June 2025 Suggest Weak and Worsening Credit Metrics.

Australian insolvencies data is fairly real-time and certainly HFD, giving a window on underlying credit metrics. The data is not good, with very...

Daniel Tabbush

Australian Banks – Profit And Dividends Surge

BEN announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Banks – Oversized Dividends

There are many banks globally that have restricted dividends. This is less apparent in Asia. Even so, we are less concerned with temporary...

Daniel Tabbush

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