Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM revenue decline is 8% and operating margins have declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year. 25% of the companies are still in the red for the quarter. Our best and worst pair for the day is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakata-seed-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9825:1" rel="noopener">Sakata Seed (1377 JP)</a> and eyewear retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jins-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12002:1" rel="noopener">JINS (3046 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/339/original/2021-01-14_06-42-35.png?1610574169" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182339"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/340/original/2021-01-14_06-44-07.png?1610574261" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182340"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM revenue decline is 8% and operating margins have declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year. 25% of the companies are still in the red for the quarter. Our best and worst pair for the day is Sakata Seed (1377 JP) and eyewear retailer JINS (3046 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>We think that investors can often find attractive opportunities among companies serving the HR department;</li>
<li>When it comes to the Japanese market, employment services companies can additionally take advantage of multiple tailwinds in our view;</li>
<li>We started with our favorable and demanding metric to shortlist 25 names across various industries within the sector, further examined them in terms of growth and cash generation, and ended with three of our top picks.</li>
</ul>


We think that investors can often find attractive opportunities among companies serving the HR department;
When it comes to the Japanese market, employment services companies can additionally take advantage of multiple tailwinds in our view;
We started with our favorable and demanding metric to shortlist 25 names across various industries within the sector, further examined them in terms of growth and cash generation, and ended with three of our top picks.


Quick Picks: Top-Quality Employment Services Providers From Japan

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include <strong>Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities</strong>.</p>

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkiso-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6272:1" rel="noopener">Nikkiso (6376 JP).</a></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/825/original/2020-10-23_06-19-12.png?1603401664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166825"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/826/original/2020-10-23_06-20-11.png?1603401680" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166826"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>8 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS
8 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -3.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Japan

Benefit One Inc. provides outsourcing services to major corporations in Japan. The Company provides a variety of benefit programs such as leisure, education, child care, nursing care and meal services for employees of the client companies.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM...

Campbell Gunn

Quick Picks: Top-Quality Employment Services Providers From Japan

We started with our favorable and demanding metric to shortlist 25 names, further examined them in terms of growth and cash generation, and ended...

Steven Chen

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM...

Campbell Gunn

Quick Picks: Top-Quality Employment Services Providers From Japan

We started with our favorable and demanding metric to shortlist 25 names, further examined them in terms of growth and cash generation, and ended...

Steven Chen

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix