Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-m3-2413-partial-tob-as-pasona-sells-control-of-benefit-one-2412-really-interesting-dynamics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-m3-2413-partial-tob-as-pasona-sells-control-of-benefit-one-2412-really-interesting-dynamics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117493" rel="noopener"></a>, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).</li>
<li>That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.</li>
<li>Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. </li>
</ul>


As discussed here in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).
That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.
Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a> is a "value stock." It has loads of cash (but less than you think) and significant ongoing governance issues, but they are doing a TINY buyback. </li>
<li>Several weeks ago we got an announcement which was odd. Not completely odd, just odd. Now in the past week we have market activity/announcements which make one wonder. </li>
<li>This piece attempts to interpret some of the recent data/info points. One is odd. Another is odd but meaningful (but different than people think). A third is just technical. </li>
</ul>



Pasona Group (2168 JP) is a "value stock." It has loads of cash (but less than you think) and significant ongoing governance issues, but they are doing a TINY buyback. 
Several weeks ago we got an announcement which was odd. Not completely odd, just odd. Now in the past week we have market activity/announcements which make one wonder. 
This piece attempts to interpret some of the recent data/info points. One is odd. Another is odd but meaningful (but different than people think). A third is just technical. 


[Japan Activism] Pasona Group (2168 JP) - Three New Things Of Mixed Importance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> will buy 50.1-55.0% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18367:1" rel="noopener">Elan Corp (6099 JP)</a>. Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. </li>
<li>There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.</li>
<li>There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. </li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) will buy 50.1-55.0% of Elan Corp (6099 JP). Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. 
There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.
There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. 


M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index provider in August every year. The reference period for the August 2024 index rebal event is now complete.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs and DELs.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

Japan

Benefit One Inc. provides outsourcing services to major corporations in Japan. The Company provides a variety of benefit programs such as leisure, education, child care, nursing care and meal services for employees of the client companies.

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Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)

Pasona: The Wrong Price

Pasona is now trading ~65% of post-tender net after-tax cash+securities. Maybe cheaper. Pasona ex-Benefit One/ex-Bewith is guided to lose money...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

[Japan Activism] Pasona Group (2168 JP) - Three New Things Of Mixed Importance

Pasona Group has seen a few new things hit the tape. 6 weeks ago we got an executive reshuffle with NANBU-san going out. Cold turkey. Then this...

Travis Lundy

M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

M3 sets a partial TOB to buy control of Elan (6099). The structure/control/target ownership look a lot like the Benefit One deal. This one is cheap...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: Final Expectations

We expect the official index changes for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index to be announced after market close on 7th August 2024. It is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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