Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported 3QFY03/2024 results today. Both revenue and OP decreased 1.6% and 7.5% YoY respectively and fell below consensus estimates.</li>
<li>Medical Platform’s revenues declined YoY while overseas segment’s top line growth has been slowing down raising concerns over m3’s growth prospects.</li>
<li>Given continued decline in earnings, it seems that m3 will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside.</li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2024 results today. Both revenue and OP decreased 1.6% and 7.5% YoY respectively and fell below consensus estimates.
Medical Platform’s revenues declined YoY while overseas segment’s top line growth has been slowing down raising concerns over m3’s growth prospects.
Given continued decline in earnings, it seems that m3 will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported 2QFY03/2023 results on Friday. Revenues increased 3.0YoY while OP decreased 7.1% YoY, both revenues and OP fell below consensus estimates by 0.2% and 4.7% respectively.</li>
<li>Medical Platform’s earnings continue to deteriorate while we are yet to see a meaningful improvement in overseas segment’s earnings to drive the next phase of growth for m3.</li>
<li>Given continued decrease in profits, we think the company will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside to m3's share price.  </li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 2QFY03/2023 results on Friday. Revenues increased 3.0YoY while OP decreased 7.1% YoY, both revenues and OP fell below consensus estimates by 0.2% and 4.7% respectively.
Medical Platform’s earnings continue to deteriorate while we are yet to see a meaningful improvement in overseas segment’s earnings to drive the next phase of growth for m3.
Given continued decrease in profits, we think the company will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside to m3's share price.  


M3: Margins Continue to Dip and Likely to Miss Full Year Guidance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported 1QFY03/2024 results on Friday. Revenue increased 0.7% YoY to ¥57.4bn (vs consensus ¥58.1bn) while OP decreased 3.7% YoY to ¥18.0bn (vs consensus ¥18.1bn).</li>
<li>Overseas revenue growth further slowed down to 5.3% despite the company expecting overseas business growth to help offset slowdown in pharma marketing business going forward.</li>
<li>This proves that m3’s long list of M&amp;A’s have not been really successful as we have not observed any meaningful growth from these new acquisitions.</li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 1QFY03/2024 results on Friday. Revenue increased 0.7% YoY to ¥57.4bn (vs consensus ¥58.1bn) while OP decreased 3.7% YoY to ¥18.0bn (vs consensus ¥18.1bn).
Overseas revenue growth further slowed down to 5.3% despite the company expecting overseas business growth to help offset slowdown in pharma marketing business going forward.
This proves that m3’s long list of M&amp;A’s have not been really successful as we have not observed any meaningful growth from these new acquisitions.


M3: Weak Earnings and Overseas Business Further Slows Down

<ul>
<li>M3’s share price dropped around 9% after 4QFY03/2023 earnings, however, it went up by more than 8% since then following the announcement regarding the acquisition of Kantar’s healthcare research businesses.</li>
<li>Our estimates suggest that new acquisition would not contribute to any meaningful growth in the near term. Despite having large no. of M&amp;A deals, growth rates have started to fall.</li>
<li>We think there is further downside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> 's consensus FY+2 earnings estimates and we would recommend shorting the stock.</li>
</ul>


M3’s share price dropped around 9% after 4QFY03/2023 earnings, however, it went up by more than 8% since then following the announcement regarding the acquisition of Kantar’s healthcare research businesses.
Our estimates suggest that new acquisition would not contribute to any meaningful growth in the near term. Despite having large no. of M&amp;A deals, growth rates have started to fall.
We think there is further downside to M3 Inc (2413 JP) 's consensus FY+2 earnings estimates and we would recommend shorting the stock.


M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>  reported 4QFY03/2023 results on Friday. Both revenue and OP increased 3.1% and 52.0% YoY to ¥55.7bn (vs consensus ¥60.8bn) and ¥16.0bn (vs consensus ¥17.8bn) respectively.</li>
<li>We previously raised concerns over slowdown in medical platform earnings, and it seems that m3 has not been able to generate meaningful growth from its overseas businesses.</li>
<li>The company expects FY03/2024E revenue growth to further drop to about 8.3% marking the slowest annual increase in revenue over the last two decades.</li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP)  reported 4QFY03/2023 results on Friday. Both revenue and OP increased 3.1% and 52.0% YoY to ¥55.7bn (vs consensus ¥60.8bn) and ¥16.0bn (vs consensus ¥17.8bn) respectively.
We previously raised concerns over slowdown in medical platform earnings, and it seems that m3 has not been able to generate meaningful growth from its overseas businesses.
The company expects FY03/2024E revenue growth to further drop to about 8.3% marking the slowest annual increase in revenue over the last two decades.


M3: Guidance Points to Further Slowdown in Growth

Japan

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

M3 Inc (2413 JP)

M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable

M3's revenues and OP declined YoY in 3Q falling below consensus estimates. Medical Platform reported YoY decline in revenues while Overseas...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Margins Continue to Dip and Likely to Miss Full Year Guidance

m3's 2Q revenues and OP fell below consensus estimates. Medical Platform's growth continues to decline while there was no meaningful improvement...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Weak Earnings and Overseas Business Further Slows Down

1QFY24 earnings below consensus. Overseas revenue growth has dropped to mid-singles despite m3 having an extended list of M&As. With pharma mktg...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing

m3's shares have been up 8% the last few weeks and the company also announced acquisition of Kantar's healthcare assets. Despite having a long list...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Guidance Points to Further Slowdown in Growth

M3's 4Q earnings were below consensus and guidance for FY03/24E revenue growth is the lowest in more than 2 decades. slowdown in pharma mktg and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable

​M3's revenues and OP declined YoY in 3Q falling below consensus estimates. Medical Platform reported YoY decline in revenues while Overseas...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Margins Continue to Dip and Likely to Miss Full Year Guidance

​m3's 2Q revenues and OP fell below consensus estimates. Medical Platform's growth continues to decline while there was no meaningful improvement...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Weak Earnings and Overseas Business Further Slows Down

1QFY24 earnings below consensus. Overseas revenue growth has dropped to mid-singles despite m3 having an extended list of M&As. With pharma mktg...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing

m3's shares have been up 8% the last few weeks and the company also announced acquisition of Kantar's healthcare assets. Despite having a long list...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Guidance Points to Further Slowdown in Growth

M3's 4Q earnings were below consensus and guidance for FY03/24E revenue growth is the lowest in more than 2 decades. slowdown in pharma mktg and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3's revenues and OP declined YoY in 3Q falling below consensus estimates. Medical Platform reported YoY decline in revenues while Overseas...

m3's 2Q revenues and OP fell below consensus estimates. Medical Platform's growth continues to decline while there was no meaningful improvement...