Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 27 September. Changes are on expected lines.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> is 19.6% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). Many stocks have over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year but there has been big underperformance over the last month as stocks expected to benefit from rural spending have rallied.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 27 September. Changes are on expected lines.
Estimated one-way turnover for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) is 19.6% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). Many stocks have over 1x ADV to trade.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year but there has been big underperformance over the last month as stocks expected to benefit from rural spending have rallied.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: 7 Changes on Expected Lines

<ul>
<li>There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aurobindo Pharma: EBITDA (+41% YoY) was in line with our/consensus estimates as 10% sales growth (-3% QoQ US, +8% EU, and +53% YoY in growth markets), higher gross margin (+544 bps YoY), was offset by higher staff (+13%) and SG&amp;A (+22% ex-R&amp;D – remediation cost of USD 9 mn and Pen-G plant opex, R&amp;D was -13% YoY)</li><li>ARBP expects (1) steady growth in the US oral solid, led by new launches and volume gain, (2) specialty/injectable to improve QoQ and it targets reach USD 600 mn sales globally in FY25 (~USD 141 mn in Q1FY25), (3) EU sales at Euro 880-900 mn on new launch visibility, (4) EBITDA margin of 21-22% in FY25 (21.4% in Q1) on reduction in remediation spend and Pen-G plant scale-up led leverage, and (5) tax rate at 27-28% in FY25</li><li>Factoring Q1, we have raised our EPS by 3/2% for FY25/26E and revise the TP to INR 1,520 (20x Q1FY27E from 18x)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aurobindo Pharma: EBITDA (+41% YoY) was in line with our/consensus estimates as 10% sales growth (-3% QoQ US, +8% EU, and +53% YoY in growth markets), higher gross margin (+544 bps YoY), was offset by higher staff (+13%) and SG&amp;A (+22% ex-R&amp;D – remediation cost of USD 9 mn and Pen-G plant opex, R&amp;D was -13% YoY)ARBP expects (1) steady growth in the US oral solid, led by new launches and volume gain, (2) specialty/injectable to improve QoQ and it targets reach USD 600 mn sales globally in FY25 (~USD 141 mn in Q1FY25), (3) EU sales at Euro 880-900 mn on new launch visibility, (4) EBITDA margin of 21-22% in FY25 (21.4% in Q1) on reduction in remediation spend and Pen-G plant scale-up led leverage, and (5) tax rate at 27-28% in FY25Factoring Q1, we have raised our EPS by 3/2% for FY25/26E and revise the TP to INR 1,520 (20x Q1FY27E from 18x)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Aurobindo Pharma, Berger Paints, Metro Brands

HSIE Results Daily: Aurobindo Pharma, Berger Paints, Metro Brands, Aarti Industries

India

Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins. The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and others.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Berger Paints India (BRGR IN)

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: 7 Changes on Expected Lines

There are 7 changes for the NIFTY Next50 Index. Estimated 1-way turnover is 19.6% resulting in a 1-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). There are...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). There are many...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

The official index changes for the NIFTY September 2024 index rebal event will be confirmed after market close on Friday 23rd August 2024. In this...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: Aurobindo Pharma, Berger Paints, Metro Brands

EBITDA (+41% YoY) was in line with our/consensus estimates as 10% sales growth (-3% QoQ US, +8% EU, and +53% YoY in growth markets)

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Aurobindo Pharma, Berger Paints, Metro Brands, Aarti Industries

EBITDA (+41% YoY) was in line with our/consensus estimates as 10% sales growth (-3% QoQ US, +8% EU, and +53% YoY in growth markets), higher gross...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)