External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few outliers, both positive and negative</li><li>Excluding the strong growth from new age businesses (~49% growth YoY) and headwinds faced by paint companies (~2% growth YoY, negative), our universe is still likely to grow at ~17%</li><li>We anticipate continued margin pressure as SSSGs remain weak, ranging from negative to lower single-digits for most</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few outliers, both positive and negativeExcluding the strong growth from new age businesses (~49% growth YoY) and headwinds faced by paint companies (~2% growth YoY, negative), our universe is still likely to grow at ~17%We anticipate continued margin pressure as SSSGs remain weak, ranging from negative to lower single-digits for mostContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Q1FY26–a mixed bag

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>INR 10,000 cr+ of fresh capacity, led by Grasim’s Birla Opus will lift organised paint capacity ~70 % by FY26 even as FY24 industry revenue growth slowed to ~4 %.</li>
<li>Hyper-Competition has shifted the fight to dealer shelves: aggressive discounts, wider distribution and heavier ad-spend are squeezing incumbents’ volumes and have dragged sector EBITDA margins from ~20% to ~16 %.</li>
<li>Near-Term earnings for legacy leaders will stay under pressure and market share will churn, but 80 % organised share and structurally strong housing demand keep the medium-term growth story intact.</li>
</ul>


INR 10,000 cr+ of fresh capacity, led by Grasim’s Birla Opus will lift organised paint capacity ~70 % by FY26 even as FY24 industry revenue growth slowed to ~4 %.
Hyper-Competition has shifted the fight to dealer shelves: aggressive discounts, wider distribution and heavier ad-spend are squeezing incumbents’ volumes and have dragged sector EBITDA margins from ~20% to ~16 %.
Near-Term earnings for legacy leaders will stay under pressure and market share will churn, but 80 % organised share and structurally strong housing demand keep the medium-term growth story intact.


India’s Paints Sector: A Tale of Disruption and Transformation

<ul>
<li>Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+'s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .  </li>
<li>This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.</li>
<li>Despite OPEC+'s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.</li>
</ul>


Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+'s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .  
This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.
Despite OPEC+'s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.


OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bag</li><li>Our coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliers</li><li>Ex-new age and Trent, the universe is likely to grow at 11% alongside margin pressures as SSSGs remain weak (ranging from negative to lower single-digits)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bagOur coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliersEx-new age and Trent, the universe is likely to grow at 11% alongside margin pressures as SSSGs remain weak (ranging from negative to lower single-digits)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Q4FY25–a mixed bag

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We interact with our dealer network representing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a>  and Birla Opus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grasim-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:290:1" rel="noopener">Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)</a> dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.</li>
<li>Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.</li>
</ul>


We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.


Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

India

Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins. The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and others.

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Berger Paints India (BRGR IN)

Consumer Discretionary (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Q1FY26–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few...

HDFC Securities

India’s Paints Sector: A Tale of Disruption and Transformation

Organised paint sector capacity set to surge by 70% by FY26, but hyper-competition squeezing margins and market share in the near-term. Strong...

Nimish Maheshwari

Consumer Discretionary (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Q4FY25–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bag. Our coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliers

HDFC Securities

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

In this Insight, we interact with Paint Dealers to understand market dynamics; Birla Opus may gain short-term market share, while Asian Paints...

Pranav Bhavsar

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Consumer Discretionary (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Q1FY26–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few...

HDFC Securities

India’s Paints Sector: A Tale of Disruption and Transformation

​Organised paint sector capacity set to surge by 70% by FY26, but hyper-competition squeezing margins and market share in the near-term. Strong...

Nimish Maheshwari

OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?

​OPEC+ decision to increase oil output leads to sharp drop in crude oil prices, benefiting some sectors in India but impacting others negatively,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Consumer Discretionary (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Q4FY25–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bag. Our coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliers

HDFC Securities

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

In this Insight, we interact with Paint Dealers to understand market dynamics; Birla Opus may gain short-term market share, while Asian Paints...

Pranav Bhavsar

Organised paint sector capacity set to surge by 70% by FY26, but hyper-competition squeezing margins and market share in the near-term. Strong...

OPEC+ decision to increase oil output leads to sharp drop in crude oil prices, benefiting some sectors in India but impacting others negatively,...