HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Jintan has taken the lead in niche market with "IP+ snacks" model, achieving strong short-term growth.However, it has been constrained by external IP reliance, rising customer concentration, cash flow pressure.</li>
<li>With seasonal adjustments in 25H2, the revenue growth rate could be 10%YoY in 2025 full year. With the diversification of IP/channels expansion, revenue growth could be 15%YoY/12%YoY in 2026/2027.</li>
<li>Jintan's characteristic is high growth but high external IP dependency risk, so a reasonable valuation should be lower than Pop Mart but higher than other traditional snack enterprises.</li>
</ul>


Jintan has taken the lead in niche market with "IP+ snacks" model, achieving strong short-term growth.However, it has been constrained by external IP reliance, rising customer concentration, cash flow pressure.
With seasonal adjustments in 25H2, the revenue growth rate could be 10%YoY in 2025 full year. With the diversification of IP/channels expansion, revenue growth could be 15%YoY/12%YoY in 2026/2027.
Jintan's characteristic is high growth but high external IP dependency risk, so a reasonable valuation should be lower than Pop Mart but higher than other traditional snack enterprises.


Pre-IPO Jintan - About the Business Model, the Risks and the Peer Comparison

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. </li>
<li>Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a> are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. </li>
<li>It is difficult to trade at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue (2097 HK)</a>'s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming (1364 HK)</a>'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. 
Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. 
It is difficult to trade at Mixue (2097 HK)'s and Guming (1364 HK)'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (BMG HK)</a>, a food and beverage retailer in China, is seeking to raise US$400 to US$500 million. </li>
<li>Busy Ming’s business model of super-low prices positions it as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> of cheap snack foods in China.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on expanding the store network, rapid GMV/revenue growth, improving margins and a strong balance sheet. </li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (BMG HK), a food and beverage retailer in China, is seeking to raise US$400 to US$500 million. 
Busy Ming’s business model of super-low prices positions it as the PDD Holdings (PDD US) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) of cheap snack foods in China.
The investment case rests on expanding the store network, rapid GMV/revenue growth, improving margins and a strong balance sheet. 


Liuliu Orchard Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Liuliu adopts a light asset model for cost control. Through OEM production model, Liuliu has avoided the risk of heavy asset investment, so its gross margin is higher than peers. </li>
<li>In the context of fierce competition, how to keep high performance growth while maintain profit margin is not easy.We’re not optimistic about Liuliu’s  "single product category + marketing/promotion driven" business model.</li>
<li>Sequoia ceased to be Liuliu’s Shareholder in 2025, right before this IPO, which is not a good signal. In our view, valuation of Liuliu should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Liuliu adopts a light asset model for cost control. Through OEM production model, Liuliu has avoided the risk of heavy asset investment, so its gross margin is higher than peers. 
In the context of fierce competition, how to keep high performance growth while maintain profit margin is not easy.We’re not optimistic about Liuliu’s  "single product category + marketing/promotion driven" business model.
Sequoia ceased to be Liuliu’s Shareholder in 2025, right before this IPO, which is not a good signal. In our view, valuation of Liuliu should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Liuliu Orchard - Hard to Achieve High Growth Due to the Lack of Product Competitiveness

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A / Index Rebalance

Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A (002176 CH)

<ul>
<li>Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

China

Bestore Co.,Ltd. operates as a snack products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells biscuits, pastries, sweets, pudding, nuts, and other related products. Bestore also provides warehousing services.

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Bestore (603719 CH)

Pre-IPO Jintan - About the Business Model, the Risks and the Peer Comparison

Jintan's "IP+ snack" model leads niche market but face risk.Revenue expected to be up 10% in 2025, with potential for 15%/12% in 2026/27.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case

Busy Ming, a food and beverage retailer in China, is seeking to raise US$400 to US$500 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Pre-IPO Liuliu Orchard - Hard to Achieve High Growth Due to the Lack of Product Competitiveness

Liuliu's light asset model boost profit margin,but concerns on growth sustainability/Sequoia's exit raise question about IPO outlook.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

We forecast 50 changes a side at the June rebal leading to a one-way turnover of 11.47% & in a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Jintan - About the Business Model, the Risks and the Peer Comparison

​Jintan's "IP+ snack" model leads niche market but face risk.Revenue expected to be up 10% in 2025, with potential for 15%/12% in 2026/27.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

​Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case

Busy Ming, a food and beverage retailer in China, is seeking to raise US$400 to US$500 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Pre-IPO Liuliu Orchard - Hard to Achieve High Growth Due to the Lack of Product Competitiveness

​Liuliu's light asset model boost profit margin,but concerns on growth sustainability/Sequoia's exit raise question about IPO outlook.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

We forecast 50 changes a side at the June rebal leading to a one-way turnover of 11.47% & in a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Jintan's "IP+ snack" model leads niche market but face risk.Revenue expected to be up 10% in 2025, with potential for 15%/12% in 2026/27.Valuation...

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Liuliu's light asset model boost profit margin,but concerns on growth sustainability/Sequoia's exit raise question about IPO outlook.Valuation...