Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we forecast two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wha-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:104:1" rel="noopener">WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> is a very close delete on market cap, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is a close delete on liquidity. Multiple possibilities here.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we forecast two changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.

Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) could replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB).

JMT Network Services (JMT TB) is a very close delete on market cap, while Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is a close delete on liquidity. Multiple possibilities here.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes - One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CPF Global Food Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpf-global-food-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37132:1" rel="noopener">CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB)</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. </li>
<li>CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Muted Growth Prospects

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpf-global-food-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37132:1" rel="noopener">CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB)</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. </li>
<li>CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally. 
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Positives - One of the Largest Players in the Industry

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<ul>
<li>BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.</li>
<li>Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.</li>
<li>BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>






BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.
Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.
BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.






BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> has been added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a>, being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a>.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) has been added to the SET50 INDEX following the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
Passive SET50 INDEX trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) at the close of trading today.
There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and Betagro (BTG TB), being added to the SET50 INDEX.


SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

Thailand

Betagro is a leading integrated agro-industrial and food company in Thailand. Its core businesses include animal feed production, livestock farming, animal health products, and the production and distribution of meat, eggs, fish, and processed foods, including pet food. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1967.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes - One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

There could be 2 changes in June. +TLI/-JMART is the high probability change. +WHA is medium probability. JMT/TIDLOR could be the second delete....

Brian Freitas

CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Muted Growth Prospects

CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so...

Ethan Aw

CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Positives - One of the Largest Players in the Industry

CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive...

Ethan Aw

BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

SAWAD will be added to the SET50 index at the close today following the DTAC/TRUE merger. TLI and BTG could then replace JMART and TIDLOR in June,...

Brian Freitas

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