Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> is likely to join the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.</li>
<li>Then there should be one change in June with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) is likely to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.
Then there should be one change in June with Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) replacing Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) in the index.
There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion</li><li>4Q22E profit to grow 99% YoY but fall 23% QoQ. Three-year core profit growth to achieve a 9% CAGR (2022-24E)</li><li>Strong financial position, with expected better debt to EBITDA. 2023E fair value derived at Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x)</li></ul>

A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion4Q22E profit to grow 99% YoY but fall 23% QoQ. Three-year core profit growth to achieve a 9% CAGR (2022-24E)Strong financial position, with expected better debt to EBITDA. 2023E fair value derived at Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x)

Betagro - Three-Year Earnings to Achieve a 9% CAGR

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,675/1,670 points and the resistance at 1,690/1,700 points, amid the lack of new positive catalysts and the slowdown in investment by foreign investors ahead of the beginning of the Chinese New Year this weekend.</li><li>We recommend trading buy on stocks likely to rebound after having fallen previously, such as reopening plays with limited downside risks.</li><li>We initiate our coverage on BTG with an Outperform rating, underpinned by i) the share price implying potential upside of around 23% vs. the fair price of Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x); ii) the firm being an integrated food producer covering the entire food chain, both for humans and pets; iii) strong distribution channels, boosting the earnings prospects; and iv) the prospect that earnings will hit new highs in the next three years.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,675/1,670 points and the resistance at 1,690/1,700 points, amid the lack of new positive catalysts and the slowdown in investment by foreign investors ahead of the beginning of the Chinese New Year this weekend.We recommend trading buy on stocks likely to rebound after having fallen previously, such as reopening plays with limited downside risks.We initiate our coverage on BTG with an Outperform rating, underpinned by i) the share price implying potential upside of around 23% vs. the fair price of Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x); ii) the firm being an integrated food producer covering the entire food chain, both for humans and pets; iii) strong distribution channels, boosting the earnings prospects; and iv) the prospect that earnings will hit new highs in the next three years.

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-health-medanta" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34649:1" rel="noopener">Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN)</a> raised approximately US$268m in its India IPO.  </li>
<li>Global Health (GH) is a hospital network that operates under the Medanta brand. The firm currently has five hospitals in operation and one more planned for development. </li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN) raised approximately US$268m in its India IPO.  
Global Health (GH) is a hospital network that operates under the Medanta brand. The firm currently has five hospitals in operation and one more planned for development. 
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.


Global Health IPO Trading - Relatively Cheap and Good

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

i-Tail Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, aims to raise around US$500m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a> .</li>
<li>As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we have looked at past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will add in its recently listed local peer.</li>
</ul>


I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, aims to raise around US$500m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB) .
As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
In our previous notes, we have looked at past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will add in its recently listed local peer.


I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison Update - Adding in Its Only Local Peer

Thailand

Betagro is a leading integrated agro-industrial and food company in Thailand. Its core businesses include animal feed production, livestock farming, animal health products, and the production and distribution of meat, eggs, fish, and processed foods, including pet food. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1967.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

SAWAD could be added to the index in March. Then TLI should replace JMART in June. INTUCH is a close delete on liquidity and there are multiple...

Brian Freitas

Betagro - Three-Year Earnings to Achieve a 9% CAGR

A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion

Krungthai XSpring

BTG I Outperform I TP Bt40.40

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,675/1,670 points and the resistance at 1,690/1,700 points, amid the lack of new...

Krungthai XSpring

Global Health IPO Trading - Relatively Cheap and Good

Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN) raised approximately US$268m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading...

Ethan Aw

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison Update - Adding in Its Only Local Peer

I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, aims to raise around US$500m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB) .

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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