High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.</li><li>Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.</li><li>Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.</li></ul>

As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas, Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas

I am a full-time private investor, ex-L/S. I document my investment portfolio decisions and share my work here.

<ul><li>I am short AURC (Aurora Acquisition Corp), the SPAC that will be bringing Better.com to market next week. I think the fair value of the company is ~81 cents - it is currently trading at $32.</li><li>Yes, borrow is hard to come by - but it does exist in small quantities. When the DeSpac occurs next week, if the stock doesn’t collapse 98% on day one, then borrow should be accesible.</li><li>Better CEO/founder Vishal Garg has a long history of bankruptcies, deception and fraud accusations.</li></ul>

I am short AURC (Aurora Acquisition Corp), the SPAC that will be bringing Better.com to market next week. I think the fair value of the company is ~81 cents - it is currently trading at $32.Yes, borrow is hard to come by - but it does exist in small quantities. When the DeSpac occurs next week, if the stock doesn’t collapse 98% on day one, then borrow should be accesible.Better CEO/founder Vishal Garg has a long history of bankruptcies, deception and fraud accusations.

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Equity Capital Markets

Better Home & Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Things have gone from bad to worse at digital mortgage firm Better.com.</li><li>Back in May last year, the company was riding a high of closing $500 million in funding from SoftBank, while announcing plans to go public at a $7.7 billion valuation with Aurora Acquisition</li><li>However, things turned sour for the company, with negative press coverage, weaker financials due to a changing market, and low employee morale due to the antics of the CEO</li></ul>

Things have gone from bad to worse at digital mortgage firm Better.com.Back in May last year, the company was riding a high of closing $500 million in funding from SoftBank, while announcing plans to go public at a $7.7 billion valuation with Aurora AcquisitionHowever, things turned sour for the company, with negative press coverage, weaker financials due to a changing market, and low employee morale due to the antics of the CEO

Better’s SPAC Deal Could be Another SoftBank Disaster

Independent Research, SPACs, SPAC Track

SPAC Track

Independent Research, SPACs

<ul><li>Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) &amp; ProKidney</li><li>Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender Better, [merging with Aurora Acquisition Corp. (AURC)] is staying on as CEO</li><li>Shares of SoFi rallied as more than 16% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following news that the fintech cleared its final regulatory hurdle in becoming a bank.</li></ul>

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) &amp; ProKidneyVishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender Better, [merging with Aurora Acquisition Corp. (AURC)] is staying on as CEOShares of SoFi rallied as more than 16% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following news that the fintech cleared its final regulatory hurdle in becoming a bank.

Pine Technology Acquisition / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Pine Technology Acquisition Corp. (PTOC: warrants -0.01%) &amp; Tomorrow.io (Valuation: $729M EV)</li><li>Oaktree Acquisition Corp. II (OACB: warrants +20.18%) &amp; Alvotech (Valuation: $2.25B EV)</li><li>FoxWayne Enterprises Acquisition (FOXW: warrants -8.06%) &amp; Aerami Therapeutics (Valuation: Transaction values Aerami at $250M)</li></ul>

Pine Technology Acquisition Corp. (PTOC: warrants -0.01%) &amp; Tomorrow.io (Valuation: $729M EV)Oaktree Acquisition Corp. II (OACB: warrants +20.18%) &amp; Alvotech (Valuation: $2.25B EV)FoxWayne Enterprises Acquisition (FOXW: warrants -8.06%) &amp; Aerami Therapeutics (Valuation: Transaction values Aerami at $250M)

United States

Better Home & Finance is an AI-native home finance company that leverages its proprietary AI platform, Tinman®, to offer mortgage and home equity loans. The company also provides real estate agent services, title, and homeowners insurance. It aims to make homeownership cheaper, faster, and easier for consumers in the United States and the United Kingdom. Better Home & Finance was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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Better Home & Finance (BETR US)

Quick Update on RKT and BETR

As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade. Cash and government bonds would...

Fallacy Alarm

Short Idea: AURC-US (Better Mortgage)

*By continuing to read this article you agree to the disclaimer at the bottom of this page. This is not financial or investment advice. Do your own...

Guasty Winds

Better’s SPAC Deal Could be Another SoftBank Disaster

Things have gone from bad to worse at digital mortgage firm Better.com. Back in May last year, the company was riding a high of closing $500...

subSPAC

The Nightcap from SPAC Track

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) & ProKidney. Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender...

SPAC Track

The Nightcap from SPAC Track

Pine Technology Acquisition Corp. (PTOC: warrants -0.01%) & Tomorrow.io (Valuation: $729M EV). Oaktree Acquisition Corp. II (OACB: warrants...

SPAC Track

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