Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.</li>
<li>With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.</li>
<li>At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.</li>
</ul>


BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.
With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.
At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.


BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Bharat Dynamics (BDL) reported a healthy Q3FY25 performance.</li><li>Key points: 1) EBITDA (adj. for provisions created) sored 120% YoY to INR 2.6bn while revenue surged 34% YoY to INR 7.9bn.</li><li>2) Estimated order book (OB), as on date, is at INR 200bn, of which nearly INR 20bn is from exports.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Dynamics (BDL) reported a healthy Q3FY25 performance.Key points: 1) EBITDA (adj. for provisions created) sored 120% YoY to INR 2.6bn while revenue surged 34% YoY to INR 7.9bn.2) Estimated order book (OB), as on date, is at INR 200bn, of which nearly INR 20bn is from exports.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Dynamics - Conspicuous Execution Uptick

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Government policy, exemplified by a massive INR 7 lakh crore ($85 billion) pipeline in the last two years and accelerating export momentum, is resulting in a structural growth cycle.</li>
<li>This conversion provides multi-year revenue visibility (3-7x Book-to-Bill for key PSUs) and fundamentally shifts the industry model from import-driven acquisition to sustained indigenous manufacturing and maintenance, fueling a sustained re-rating.</li>
<li>The defence sector has crossed an point where execution is the new alpha; investors must closely monitor supply chain resilience around critical component imports, and the timing of mega-order conversions.</li>
</ul>


Government policy, exemplified by a massive INR 7 lakh crore ($85 billion) pipeline in the last two years and accelerating export momentum, is resulting in a structural growth cycle.
This conversion provides multi-year revenue visibility (3-7x Book-to-Bill for key PSUs) and fundamentally shifts the industry model from import-driven acquisition to sustained indigenous manufacturing and maintenance, fueling a sustained re-rating.
The defence sector has crossed an point where execution is the new alpha; investors must closely monitor supply chain resilience around critical component imports, and the timing of mega-order conversions.


Thematic Report on India's Defence Sector: The 'Atmanirbhar' Capex Cycle Hits Acceleration

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

India

Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) manufactures defense equipment. The Company offers ammunitions, counter measures dispensing, infra red interference indicators, and missile systems. BDL serves military and aerospace industries in India.

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Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL IN)

BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge

BDL's strong FY25 performance with high revenue and PAT, expanding operations with new plants, but stretched valuations raise concerns despite...

Rahul Jain

Bharat Dynamics - Conspicuous Execution Uptick

Key points: 1) EBITDA (adj. for provisions created) sored 120% YoY to INR 2.6bn while revenue surged 34% YoY to INR 7.9bn.

ICICI Securities Limited

Thematic Report on India's Defence Sector: The 'Atmanirbhar' Capex Cycle Hits Acceleration

Government policy driving massive defense pipeline and export growth is shifting industry model towards sustained indigenous manufacturing,...

Nimish Maheshwari

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

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BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge

​BDL's strong FY25 performance with high revenue and PAT, expanding operations with new plants, but stretched valuations raise concerns despite...

Rahul Jain

Bharat Dynamics - Conspicuous Execution Uptick

Key points: 1) EBITDA (adj. for provisions created) sored 120% YoY to INR 2.6bn while revenue surged 34% YoY to INR 7.9bn.

ICICI Securities Limited

Thematic Report on India's Defence Sector: The 'Atmanirbhar' Capex Cycle Hits Acceleration

​Government policy driving massive defense pipeline and export growth is shifting industry model towards sustained indigenous manufacturing,...

Nimish Maheshwari

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

BDL's strong FY25 performance with high revenue and PAT, expanding operations with new plants, but stretched valuations raise concerns despite...

Government policy driving massive defense pipeline and export growth is shifting industry model towards sustained indigenous manufacturing,...