Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).</li>
<li>Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.</li>
</ul>


There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Surging DPSU order books ensure revenue visibility, supported by FY26's 9.5% budget increase and 75% capital outlay for domestic industry.   </li>
<li>The future outlook appears robust, driven by policy and a 20% production CAGR target, aiming for INR 5 lakh crore in exports by 2029.   </li>
<li>High valuations driven by P/E re-rating and heavy dependence on Ministry of Defence  as a single buyer are key sector risks.</li>
</ul>


Surging DPSU order books ensure revenue visibility, supported by FY26's 9.5% budget increase and 75% capital outlay for domestic industry.   
The future outlook appears robust, driven by policy and a 20% production CAGR target, aiming for INR 5 lakh crore in exports by 2029.   
High valuations driven by P/E re-rating and heavy dependence on Ministry of Defence  as a single buyer are key sector risks.


Indian Defence Sector: A Sustainable Boom Or A Trap?

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.</li>
<li>Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.</li>
<li>Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.</li>
</ul>


Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.
Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.
Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.


BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited

<ul>
<li>The headline Indian mid cap indices are still expensive, despite a sharp decline since late September. However, when adjusted for growth, many fundamentally attractive mid-caps are cheap.</li>
<li>We screen mid-caps with PEG&lt;1.3x, consensus Buy recommendations and increasing consensus EPS estimates over the past six months. We choose well-covered stocks so that the consensus estimates are meaningful.</li>
<li>Our basket of 20 contains six financial stocks, five materials, four industrials and three consumer discretionaries. Many pertain to the themes of renewable energy, data centers, healthcare, tourism and infrastructure.</li>
</ul>


The headline Indian mid cap indices are still expensive, despite a sharp decline since late September. However, when adjusted for growth, many fundamentally attractive mid-caps are cheap.
We screen mid-caps with PEG&lt;1.3x, consensus Buy recommendations and increasing consensus EPS estimates over the past six months. We choose well-covered stocks so that the consensus estimates are meaningful.
Our basket of 20 contains six financial stocks, five materials, four industrials and three consumer discretionaries. Many pertain to the themes of renewable energy, data centers, healthcare, tourism and infrastructure.


Asian Equities: Twenty Attractive and Cheap Indian Mid-Caps

India

Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) manufactures defense equipment. The Company offers ammunitions, counter measures dispensing, infra red interference indicators, and missile systems. BDL serves military and aerospace industries in India.

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Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 20 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Indian Defence Sector: A Sustainable Boom Or A Trap?

Defense PSUs benefit from strong order books and government support, but face risks from high valuations and reliance on a single buyer. Future...

Sudarshan Bhandari

BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

Article highlights strong execution and growth prospects for a company with a high-margin defense order book, but warns of a stretched valuation...

Rahul Jain

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Twenty Attractive and Cheap Indian Mid-Caps

Indian midcap indices are pricey despite recent drop, but many fundamentally strong midcaps offer value when growth is factored in. Our screen on...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 20 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Indian Defence Sector: A Sustainable Boom Or A Trap?

​Defense PSUs benefit from strong order books and government support, but face risks from high valuations and reliance on a single buyer. Future...

Sudarshan Bhandari

BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

​Article highlights strong execution and growth prospects for a company with a high-margin defense order book, but warns of a stretched valuation...

Rahul Jain

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Twenty Attractive and Cheap Indian Mid-Caps

​Indian midcap indices are pricey despite recent drop, but many fundamentally strong midcaps offer value when growth is factored in. Our screen on...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Defense PSUs benefit from strong order books and government support, but face risks from high valuations and reliance on a single buyer. Future...

Article highlights strong execution and growth prospects for a company with a high-margin defense order book, but warns of a stretched valuation...

Indian midcap indices are pricey despite recent drop, but many fundamentally strong midcaps offer value when growth is factored in. Our screen on...