Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted.</li><li>Expectations of healthy availability of supply and seasonal slowdown in demand curb urgency to lock in additional volumes.</li><li>Seasonal slowdown could limit immediate impact of any adjustment in base oils output because of lower margins.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted.Expectations of healthy availability of supply and seasonal slowdown in demand curb urgency to lock in additional volumes.Seasonal slowdown could limit immediate impact of any adjustment in base oils output because of lower margins.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 345, owing to the risk of weak refining and marketing margins</li><li>Q2FY26 EBITDA at INR 97.77bn (+1.2x YoY, +1.2% QoQ) and reported PAT at INR 64.4bn (+1.6x YoY, +5.2% QoQ) were below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margins and marketing volume.</li><li>Ambuja Cement: We maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of INR 680/share (16.5x its consolidated Sep-27E EBITDA)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 345, owing to the risk of weak refining and marketing marginsQ2FY26 EBITDA at INR 97.77bn (+1.2x YoY, +1.2% QoQ) and reported PAT at INR 64.4bn (+1.6x YoY, +5.2% QoQ) were below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margins and marketing volume.Ambuja Cement: We maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of INR 680/share (16.5x its consolidated Sep-27E EBITDA)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Ambuja Cement, Sundaram Finance...

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.</li><li>Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.</li><li>Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of supply.</li><li>Firmer Group II prices in markets like India and China relative to FOB Asia cargo prices point to steadier buying interest in those markets.</li><li>Any such buying interest could reflect impact of or concern about tighter supply because of recent or upcoming plant-maintenance work in countries that supply those markets.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of supply.Firmer Group II prices in markets like India and China relative to FOB Asia cargo prices point to steadier buying interest in those markets.Any such buying interest could reflect impact of or concern about tighter supply because of recent or upcoming plant-maintenance work in countries that supply those markets.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

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Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted. Expectations of healthy availability of supply and seasonal slowdown in demand curb urgency to lock...

Base Oil News

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Ambuja Cement, Sundaram Finance...

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 345, owing to the risk of weak...

HDFC Securities

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024. Ongoing...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of...

Base Oil News

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in November. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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