Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.</p>
<div>Compared to other listed breweries in the region, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. </div>
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<div>Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. </div>
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<p>Since 6 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.</p>

The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.
Compared to other listed breweries in the region, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. 

Compared to CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) and Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. 

Since 6 months ago, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: left;">The recent fall in price of many so called “China concept shares” of US listed Chinese companies, has largely been triggered by the passing of the "Holding Foreign Company Accountability Act" (HFCAA).</p><p style="text-align: left;">A flock of US listed Chinese companies have since decided to relist in HKSE due to a few reasons:</p><ol>
<li>The HFCAA causing conflicting compliance requirements with Chinese regulations.</li>
<li>Fear among investors of forced delisting in the US.</li>
<li>HKEX deregulation allowing more Chinese companies to be listed.</li>
<li>The valuation in HK is in sync with the U.S. stock market.</li>
<li>HK attracting more Chinese funds to operate in HKEX.</li>
</ol>

The recent fall in price of many so called “China concept shares” of US listed Chinese companies, has largely been triggered by the passing of the "Holding Foreign Company Accountability Act" (HFCAA).A flock of US listed Chinese companies have since decided to relist in HKSE due to a few reasons:
The HFCAA causing conflicting compliance requirements with Chinese regulations.
Fear among investors of forced delisting in the US.
HKEX deregulation allowing more Chinese companies to be listed.
The valuation in HK is in sync with the U.S. stock market.
HK attracting more Chinese funds to operate in HKEX.


Exit the Dragon – the Mass Exodus of US Listed Chinese Companies

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> has launched a $1.4 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong by offering 31.6 million ordinary shares. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 13 April. The net proceeds will be used to fund the expansion of its travel offerings, improve user experience and invest in technology. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trip-com-secondary-listing-no-heads-in-the-clouds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49965" rel="noopener">Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds</a>, we outlined our views on Trip.com’s fundamentals and valuation. Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. </p></div><div><div>
<p>In this note, we will look at Trip.com’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, Trip.com will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and Chinese tech names are losing their shine due to the US delisting threat and the trend of investors rotating out of tech stocks. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index is down -18% since March 2021. Trip.com shares are up 15% YTD but down -2% since March 2021.  </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Due to the weakening market sentiment on Chinese tech names, Trip.com will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median of past secondary listings. Trip.com pricing its H-shares at a discount of 3-4% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.</p></div>
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Trip.com (TCOM US) has launched a $1.4 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong by offering 31.6 million ordinary shares. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 13 April. The net proceeds will be used to fund the expansion of its travel offerings, improve user experience and invest in technology. In Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds, we outlined our views on Trip.com’s fundamentals and valuation. Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. 
In this note, we will look at Trip.com’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, Trip.com will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and Chinese tech names are losing their shine due to the US delisting threat and the trend of investors rotating out of tech stocks. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index is down -18% since March 2021. Trip.com shares are up 15% YTD but down -2% since March 2021.  
Due to the weakening market sentiment on Chinese tech names, Trip.com will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median of past secondary listings. Trip.com pricing its H-shares at a discount of 3-4% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.


Trip.com Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​(Discount) Views

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Hong Kong Stock Exchange has become the beneficiary of tightening listing requirements and accounting rules for foreign companies by the US regulatory authorities. Chinese companies that are listed in the US are forced to comply with US accounting standards and as a result, a large number of US-listed Chinese companies have sought secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over the last two years.</p><p>Autohome, Baidu and Bilibili conducted secondary listings earlier this year and several other companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a>  are said to be in the process of securing secondary listings in Hong Kong due to the fear of being delisted from the US Exchange.</p><p>As these companies rush for secondary listings in Hong Kong, in a series of reports, we analyse 10 of the secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over the last 2-years. These 10 companies include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20234:1" rel="noopener">Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25877:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1" rel="noopener">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17527:1" rel="noopener">Huazhu Group (HTHT US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1" rel="noopener">NetEase Inc (NTES US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23712:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (BGNE US)</a> .</p>

Hong Kong Stock Exchange has become the beneficiary of tightening listing requirements and accounting rules for foreign companies by the US regulatory authorities. Chinese companies that are listed in the US are forced to comply with US accounting standards and as a result, a large number of US-listed Chinese companies have sought secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over the last two years.Autohome, Baidu and Bilibili conducted secondary listings earlier this year and several other companies including Trip.com (TCOM US) , Tencent Music (TME US) and Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)  are said to be in the process of securing secondary listings in Hong Kong due to the fear of being delisted from the US Exchange.As these companies rush for secondary listings in Hong Kong, in a series of reports, we analyse 10 of the secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over the last 2-years. These 10 companies include Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US) , GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) , Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US) , Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) , ZTO Express (ZTO US) , Huazhu Group (HTHT US) , JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) , NetEase Inc (NTES US) , Alibaba Group (BABA US) and BeiGene (BGNE US) .

ADR/HKEX Analysis: Lower Trading Volumes on HKEX Show Limited Liquidity Compared to the US

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> is a leading one-stop travel platform that currently operates through four leading travel brands which are Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner. Trip.com passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1-2 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. </p><p>Trip.com is braving choppy markets and waning investor enthusiasm on secondary listings/IPOs. The recent Hong Kong secondary listings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20234:1" rel="noopener">Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> are trading 3% and 8% above their H-share listing price, respectively. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> is trading -13% below its H-share listing price largely due to the fallout from the fire sale at Archegos Capital.   </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In the post-pandemic world, Trip.com aims to cement its market share gains through strengthening its supply chain (such as short-distance travel), higher conversion via content investment (such as live streaming) and rising penetration in lower-tier cities (&gt;40% of new mobile app users in 2020 were from lower-tier cities). We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel recovery at the last close price. </p></div>

Trip.com (TCOM US) is a leading one-stop travel platform that currently operates through four leading travel brands which are Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner. Trip.com passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1-2 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. Trip.com is braving choppy markets and waning investor enthusiasm on secondary listings/IPOs. The recent Hong Kong secondary listings of Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US) and Bilibili Inc (BILI US) are trading 3% and 8% above their H-share listing price, respectively. Baidu (BIDU US) is trading -13% below its H-share listing price largely due to the fallout from the fire sale at Archegos Capital.   Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In the post-pandemic world, Trip.com aims to cement its market share gains through strengthening its supply chain (such as short-distance travel), higher conversion via content investment (such as live streaming) and rising penetration in lower-tier cities (&gt;40% of new mobile app users in 2020 were from lower-tier cities). We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel recovery at the last close price. 

Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (9626 HK)

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Henry Soediarko

Exit the Dragon – the Mass Exodus of US Listed Chinese Companies

Is US-China financial decoupling affecting the US stock market? What's the future of US listed Chinese companies l? How can investors in China...

Evelyn Zhang

Trip.com Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Trip.com has launched a $1.4 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. In the context of the weakening market sentiment, Trip.com pricing its H-shares at...

Arun George

ADR/HKEX Analysis: Lower Trading Volumes on HKEX Show Limited Liquidity Compared to the US

Given relatively lower levels of trading volumes in HK compared to the US Exchanges, it is questionable whether the ADR/HKEX listed companies are...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

Trip.com passed its HKEx listing hearing to raise up to $1-2bn through a secondary listing. We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel...

Arun George

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Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Henry Soediarko

Exit the Dragon – the Mass Exodus of US Listed Chinese Companies

Is US-China financial decoupling affecting the US stock market? What's the future of US listed Chinese companies l? How can investors in China...

Evelyn Zhang

Trip.com Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​(Discount) Views

Trip.com has launched a $1.4 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. In the context of the weakening market sentiment, Trip.com pricing its H-shares at...

Arun George

ADR/HKEX Analysis: Lower Trading Volumes on HKEX Show Limited Liquidity Compared to the US

Given relatively lower levels of trading volumes in HK compared to the US Exchanges, it is questionable whether the ADR/HKEX listed companies are...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

Trip.com passed its HKEx listing hearing to raise up to $1-2bn through a secondary listing. We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel...

Arun George

Trip.com Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views