Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.</li>
<li>SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.</li>
<li>Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.


China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Bilibili (BILI) reported C4Q24 revenue and GAAP operating profit in line, 87% vs. our estimates and in line, 130% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>We see BILI's content strategy to be working to drive higher and better traffic, benefiting the ads business. </li>
<li>We BUY and raised our TP to US$24 awaiting further details on game pipeline. The stock trading at 2025 PE of 31x.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili (BILI) reported C4Q24 revenue and GAAP operating profit in line, 87% vs. our estimates and in line, 130% vs. consensus. 
We see BILI's content strategy to be working to drive higher and better traffic, benefiting the ads business. 
We BUY and raised our TP to US$24 awaiting further details on game pipeline. The stock trading at 2025 PE of 31x.


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Game Slowdown from C2Q25

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a> was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.</li>
<li>Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym2/128782/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">result</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/128783/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) and <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198000/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its full-year forecast</a> to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.</li>
<li>The company also announced it is preparing a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198002/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section Transfer application</a>, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.</li>
</ul>


"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.


2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Game Slowdown from C2Q25

Bilibili's strong revenue and profit performance driven by successful content strategy, leading to a buy recommendation with raised price target.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

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China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Game Slowdown from C2Q25

​Bilibili's strong revenue and profit performance driven by successful content strategy, leading to a buy recommendation with raised price target.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

Bilibili's strong revenue and profit performance driven by successful content strategy, leading to a buy recommendation with raised price target.