Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JD US/BABA US/PDD US: Government Regulation Forces Cancellation of "Refund Without Return" Policy (+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent Games SPARK Conference Reveals R&amp;D Progress for Multiple Titles Including &lt;Honor of Kings: World&gt; (+)</li>
<li>BIDU US:Baidu launches the AI agent app "Xin Xiang," which is similar to Manus(/)</li>
</ul>


JD US/BABA US/PDD US: Government Regulation Forces Cancellation of "Refund Without Return" Policy (+/+/-)
700 HK: Tencent Games SPARK Conference Reveals R&amp;D Progress for Multiple Titles Including &lt;Honor of Kings: World&gt; (+)
BIDU US:Baidu launches the AI agent app "Xin Xiang," which is similar to Manus(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/BIDU US/3690 HK/NTES US/BILI US/E-Commerce

<ul>
<li>Tencent and NetEase games showed strong during CNY, echoing strong box office showing. Express delivery data suggested robust e-commerce performance;</li>
<li>However, as a big ticket item with no subsidies support, housing market petered out quickly after CNY, which suggests recovery is still fragile;</li>
<li>Meituan's milk tea order volume jumped after introducing social gift functions. Meituan and JD.com are two beneficiaries of social gifting from the GMV angle with Tencent from the advertising angle.</li>
</ul>


Tencent and NetEase games showed strong during CNY, echoing strong box office showing. Express delivery data suggested robust e-commerce performance;
However, as a big ticket item with no subsidies support, housing market petered out quickly after CNY, which suggests recovery is still fragile;
Meituan's milk tea order volume jumped after introducing social gift functions. Meituan and JD.com are two beneficiaries of social gifting from the GMV angle with Tencent from the advertising angle.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>The two new titles released in December, &lt;One Piece: Ambition&gt; and &lt;Where Winds Meet&gt;, from Tencent and NetEase, have shown promising early results and should become major blockbusters in 2025</li>
<li>For Tencent, the holiday updates for &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; have underperformed, leading us to revise our revenue expectations downward by approximately 10%.</li>
<li>Bilibili's key title, &lt;Three Kingdoms: MDTX&gt;, has seen a slight decline in popularity,  due to the intense competition in the SLG genre. The future seasonal updates could rejuvenate the performance.</li>
</ul>


The two new titles released in December, &lt;One Piece: Ambition&gt; and &lt;Where Winds Meet&gt;, from Tencent and NetEase, have shown promising early results and should become major blockbusters in 2025
For Tencent, the holiday updates for &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; have underperformed, leading us to revise our revenue expectations downward by approximately 10%.
Bilibili's key title, &lt;Three Kingdoms: MDTX&gt;, has seen a slight decline in popularity,  due to the intense competition in the SLG genre. The future seasonal updates could rejuvenate the performance.


China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 - January‌ 4, 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On December 16th, Kuaishou launched a subscription service for its micro drama channel, we believe it marks a key step towards improving monetization;</li>
<li>The penetration rate of heavy micro drama users on the platform has steadily increased, and leveraging their loyalty and monetization efficiency may improve with the subscription model.</li>
<li>The new model could better help mitigate the macroeconomic risks posed by advertising and the content quality risks of its long-tail partners.</li>
</ul>


On December 16th, Kuaishou launched a subscription service for its micro drama channel, we believe it marks a key step towards improving monetization;
The penetration rate of heavy micro drama users on the platform has steadily increased, and leveraging their loyalty and monetization efficiency may improve with the subscription model.
The new model could better help mitigate the macroeconomic risks posed by advertising and the content quality risks of its long-tail partners.


Monetization Upgrade Kickstarts Kuaishou's Microdrama Business

<ul>
<li>&lt;Peacekeeper&gt;'s more aggressive gameplay reforms and monetization changes have delivered better results, leading us to raise its 2024 annualized gross billings estimate slightly.</li>
<li>&lt;DnF Mobile&gt;'s new version experienced a slight decline in player retention, though this is likely temporary. As a result, we have slightly lowered its 2024 annualized grossing estimates.</li>
<li>NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; received player feedback that fell slightly below expectations. The game continues to face considerable pressure for revenue recovery, prompting us to lower our full-year revenue estimate slightly.</li>
</ul>


&lt;Peacekeeper&gt;'s more aggressive gameplay reforms and monetization changes have delivered better results, leading us to raise its 2024 annualized gross billings estimate slightly.
&lt;DnF Mobile&gt;'s new version experienced a slight decline in player retention, though this is likely temporary. As a result, we have slightly lowered its 2024 annualized grossing estimates.
NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; received player feedback that fell slightly below expectations. The game continues to face considerable pressure for revenue recovery, prompting us to lower our full-year revenue estimate slightly.


China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 - December 16, 2024

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/BIDU US/3690 HK/NTES US/BILI US/E-Commerce

Government regulation forces cancellation of "refund without return" policy at JD,BABA,andPDD;Tencent reveals R&D progress at SPARK...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing

Tencent and NetEase games shine during CNY, housing market falters post-holiday, Meituan sees boost in milk tea orders with social gifting feature.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 - January‌ 4, 2025

New titles from Tencent and NetEase show promise for 2025 blockbuster status, while Tencent's holiday updates disappoint and Bilibili faces...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monetization Upgrade Kickstarts Kuaishou's Microdrama Business

Kuaishou transitions from IAP to a subscription model for micro dramas to improve monetization efficiency and mitigate risks. We estimate it can...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 - December 16, 2024

Peacekeeper and DnF Mobile continue to show performance volatility, while the Eggy Party has underperformed expectations. Meanwhile, Bilibili's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/BIDU US/3690 HK/NTES US/BILI US/E-Commerce

​Government regulation forces cancellation of "refund without return" policy at JD,BABA,andPDD;Tencent reveals R&D progress at SPARK...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 6/52]: Consumption Warmed Up During CNY Except Housing

​Tencent and NetEase games shine during CNY, housing market falters post-holiday, Meituan sees boost in milk tea orders with social gifting feature.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 - January‌ 4, 2025

​New titles from Tencent and NetEase show promise for 2025 blockbuster status, while Tencent's holiday updates disappoint and Bilibili faces...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monetization Upgrade Kickstarts Kuaishou's Microdrama Business

​Kuaishou transitions from IAP to a subscription model for micro dramas to improve monetization efficiency and mitigate risks. We estimate it can...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 - December 16, 2024

Peacekeeper and DnF Mobile continue to show performance volatility, while the Eggy Party has underperformed expectations. Meanwhile, Bilibili's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Government regulation forces cancellation of "refund without return" policy at JD,BABA,andPDD;Tencent reveals R&D progress at SPARK...

Tencent and NetEase games shine during CNY, housing market falters post-holiday, Meituan sees boost in milk tea orders with social gifting feature.

New titles from Tencent and NetEase show promise for 2025 blockbuster status, while Tencent's holiday updates disappoint and Bilibili faces...

Kuaishou transitions from IAP to a subscription model for micro dramas to improve monetization efficiency and mitigate risks. We estimate it can...