Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Crypto currencies/Bitcoin shows a high correlation with risk appetite within the global cycle as pointed out in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bitcoin-support-pressure-trade-points-and-global-risk-appetite" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24086">Bitcoin Support Pressure, Trade Points and Global Risk Appetite</a> on September 13, 2018.Crypto surge/plunge cycle is a historic example of a mania with implications for risk in 2019.Bitcoin did break below triangle pivot support and saw the expected plunge that followed our bearish SOX and NDX lead calls (also outlined in the previous insight).Bitcoin is moving into a much lower trading range as sentiment and support deflates. 6,000 will now act as formidable resistance with a 50% decline in store for 2019.

Crypto currencies/Bitcoin shows a high correlation with risk appetite within the global cycle as pointed out in our Bitcoin Support Pressure, Trade Points and Global Risk Appetite on September 13, 2018.Crypto surge/plunge cycle is a historic example of a mania with implications for risk in 2019.Bitcoin did break below triangle pivot support and saw the expected plunge that followed our bearish SOX and NDX lead calls (also outlined in the previous insight).Bitcoin is moving into a much lower trading range as sentiment and support deflates. 6,000 will now act as formidable resistance with a 50% decline in store for 2019.

Bitcoin in for a Pounding as Global Risk Appetite Plunges in 2019

Crypto currencies often correlate with extreme levels of risk appetite and risk aversion that display an increasingly tighter correlation with risk assets globally.Crypto surge/plunge cycle is a historic example of euphoric deflation if not mania.Bitcoin is pressing on pivotal support that if broken would pave the way lower.Contracting global breadth goes hand in hand with tightening global liquidly. SOX index is the first pinprick that will lead the NDX lower (the most overcrowded trade).

Crypto currencies often correlate with extreme levels of risk appetite and risk aversion that display an increasingly tighter correlation with risk assets globally.Crypto surge/plunge cycle is a historic example of euphoric deflation if not mania.Bitcoin is pressing on pivotal support that if broken would pave the way lower.Contracting global breadth goes hand in hand with tightening global liquidly. SOX index is the first pinprick that will lead the NDX lower (the most overcrowded trade).

Bitcoin Support Pressure, Trade Points and Global Risk Appetite

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Monex's share price has been on a declining trend over the past month, after reaching an all-time high of JPY714 during the first week of May. This downtrend was mainly due to weak cryptocurrency markets over the past few weeks, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> falling more than 30% since the first week of May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/055/426/original/Monex.PNG?1529369964" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="55426"></figure><div class="content-remarks">Source: Bloomberg</div>When we last looked at Monex (in late April), Bitcoin was around JPY950,000 (USD9,000), but is now trading around the JPY700,000 (USD6,500) mark. Moreover, Coincheck recorded…

Monex's share price has been on a declining trend over the past month, after reaching an all-time high of JPY714 during the first week of May. This downtrend was mainly due to weak cryptocurrency markets over the past few weeks, with Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) falling more than 30% since the first week of May.Source: BloombergWhen we last looked at Monex (in late April), Bitcoin was around JPY950,000 (USD9,000), but is now trading around the JPY700,000 (USD6,500) mark. Moreover, Coincheck recorded…

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial products, like ETFs, are widely expected.  If it does grow in stature as a store of value, its fair value is conservatively $50,000 in our view.  It may not be a coincidence that as financial stress in China creeps up, and Trump throws Middle East peace under a bus, demand for bitcoin picks up.  There may even be evidence that investors are starting to rotate out of gold towards Bitcoin; a shift from the old world haven to the haven for the digital world.  The grumpy old men of finance are dismissing Bitcoin as a bubble.  It probably is, but one that is blowing up, and may do so much further.  The bearish consensus view for the USD is getting harder to square with its improved yield advantage and strong economic outlook.  Tighter USD short funding costs, position squaring and seasonal strength may propel the USD higher into year-end.  EM markets are tiring into year-end.

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial products, like ETFs, are widely expected.  If it does grow in stature as a store of value, its fair value is conservatively $50,000 in our view.  It may not be a coincidence that as financial stress in China creeps up, and Trump throws Middle East peace under a bus, demand for bitcoin picks up.  There may even be evidence that investors are starting to rotate out of gold towards Bitcoin; a shift from the old world haven to the haven for the digital world.  The grumpy old men of finance are dismissing Bitcoin as a bubble.  It probably is, but one that is blowing up, and may do so much further.  The bearish consensus view for the USD is getting harder to square with its improved yield advantage and strong economic outlook.  Tighter USD short funding costs, position squaring and seasonal strength may propel the USD higher into year-end.  EM markets are tiring into year-end.

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)

Bitcoin in for a Pounding as Global Risk Appetite Plunges in 2019

Crypto currencies/Bitcoin shows a high correlation with risk appetite within the global cycle as pointed out in our Bitcoin Support Pressure, Trade...

Thomas Schroeder

Bitcoin Support Pressure, Trade Points and Global Risk Appetite

Crypto currencies often correlate with extreme levels of risk appetite and risk aversion that display an increasingly tighter correlation with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action. This may be helping drive the USD higher in the...

Greg Gibbs

Weak Crypto-Markets Are Hurting Monex

Monex's share price has been on a declining trend over the past month, after reaching an all-time high of JPY714 during the first week of May. This...

Supun Walpola

Rotation from Gold to Bitcoin

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)