Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

<ul>
<li>Contrary to many other Sentiment Indicators - which we don’t really understand - our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into ‘Frenzy.’</li>
<li>China is considering launching a state-backed stabilization fund to boost the Chinese stock market. We show what happened the last time China came up with a similar move. </li>
<li>Even though headline and core inflation were close to expectations, the underlying data signals trouble. Powell’s favorite CPI measure, SuperCore inflation, rose 7.6% on an annualized basis in September. </li>
</ul>


Contrary to many other Sentiment Indicators - which we don’t really understand - our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into ‘Frenzy.’
China is considering launching a state-backed stabilization fund to boost the Chinese stock market. We show what happened the last time China came up with a similar move. 
Even though headline and core inflation were close to expectations, the underlying data signals trouble. Powell’s favorite CPI measure, SuperCore inflation, rose 7.6% on an annualized basis in September. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

<ul>
<li>Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.</li>
<li>We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? </li>
<li>Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. </li>
</ul>


Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? 
Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?

Eurozone Equities are pricing in a massive improvement of the Credit Impulse (change in credit growth relative to GDP) that is unlikely to...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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