Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>We look at the two recent Central Bank decisions and what they mean for our themes </li>
<li>The Iran/US MOU is providing an opportunity in oil and gas stocks</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
We look at the two recent Central Bank decisions and what they mean for our themes 
The Iran/US MOU is providing an opportunity in oil and gas stocks


Overview #65 – A Tale of Two Central Banks

Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance, Coinstack

Coinstack

Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance

Coinstack is published weekly by Ryan Allis. He was previously CEO and Co-founder of iContact and led the company from 300 employees, 70,000 customers, and $50M in annual sales and an exit for $169M. Ryan was an angel investor in SpaceX, LendingClub, Change.org, Kuli Kuli, and Catalant. Today, Ryan advises companies and governments on blockchain-related projects and is the Chairman of Hive.org, a global community of 3,500 purpose-driven leaders from 130 countries making a positive impact in the world. Ryan holds an MBA from Harvard Business School where he was Co-President of the Harvard Social Enterprise Club and a fellow of the Harvard Graduate School Leadership Institute.

Crypto

<ul><li>Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs snapped their longest losing streak on record, pulling in a combined $281.8 million for the week after eight straight weeks (week ending July 12) that drained $8.26 billion.</li><li>Renewed US-Iran hostilities rattled markets midweek, with Bitcoin sliding to roughly $61,492 on July 8 after Trump declared the ceasefire over, before recovering to $64,400 (intraday high of $64,658.97 on July 10) by Friday on a short squeeze.</li><li>Strategy sold a record 3,588 BTC for $216 million, its largest disposal ever, to fund preferred stock dividends, a marked shift from years of never selling.</li></ul>

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs snapped their longest losing streak on record, pulling in a combined $281.8 million for the week after eight straight weeks (week ending July 12) that drained $8.26 billion.Renewed US-Iran hostilities rattled markets midweek, with Bitcoin sliding to roughly $61,492 on July 8 after Trump declared the ceasefire over, before recovering to $64,400 (intraday high of $64,658.97 on July 10) by Friday on a short squeeze.Strategy sold a record 3,588 BTC for $216 million, its largest disposal ever, to fund preferred stock dividends, a marked shift from years of never selling.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed stuck with its intention to cut rates three times this year while penciling in one rate cut less for 2025 and 2026.</li>
<li>The key takeaway was that Powell is really keen on maintaining ample liquidity instead of what he calls abundant liquidity now. </li>
<li>Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin love ample liquidity, especially when it becomes abundant again when the economy heads south.</li>
</ul>


The Fed stuck with its intention to cut rates three times this year while penciling in one rate cut less for 2025 and 2026.
The key takeaway was that Powell is really keen on maintaining ample liquidity instead of what he calls abundant liquidity now. 
Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin love ample liquidity, especially when it becomes abundant again when the economy heads south.


March FOMC Meeting Conclusion: Powell Likes His Balance Sheet ‘BIG!

<ul><li>Bitcoin rebounded to roughly $62,600-$63,000, up 4.5% on the week, after touching a 21-month low near $58,000 on Wednesday.</li><li>June nonfarm payrolls printed just +57,000 versus 115,000 expected, closing the door on a near-term rate hike and reviving cut odds.</li><li>US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million inflow, and Ethereum ETFs turned positive after nine straight outflows.</li></ul>

Bitcoin rebounded to roughly $62,600-$63,000, up 4.5% on the week, after touching a 21-month low near $58,000 on Wednesday.June nonfarm payrolls printed just +57,000 versus 115,000 expected, closing the door on a near-term rate hike and reviving cut odds.US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million inflow, and Ethereum ETFs turned positive after nine straight outflows.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.</li>
<li>For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.</li>
<li>Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.</li>
</ul>


Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.
For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.
Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.


Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Overview #65 – A Tale of Two Central Banks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent Central Bank decisions and the Iran/US MOU

Rikki Malik

8-Week Losing Streak. Over.

Strategy sold a record 3,588 BTC for $216 million, its largest disposal ever, to fund preferred stock dividends, a marked shift from years of never...

Coinstack

March FOMC Meeting Conclusion: Powell Likes His Balance Sheet ‘BIG!

Even though the new Federal Reserve 'Dot Plot' looks marginally hawkish, Powell's strong emphasis on ample liquidity made markets cheer!

Jeroen Blokland

57K Jobs. Crypto's Comeback Week?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million inflow, and Ethereum ETFs turned positive after nine...

Coinstack

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

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