Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal, Washington H.Soul, Blackmores, De Grey Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal, Washington H.Soul, Blackmores, De Grey Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Launched 30 new SKUs during COVID-19 in multiple areas of health that can transform the company from herbal remedies into a bigger conglomerate of health providers. </li>
<li>PE firm that backed SIDO in the earlier years reduced its holdings but it should not be seen as a vote of negative confidence in the company. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> can be compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> which has a wide range of health products but trades at a 100% premium to SIDO. </li>
</ul>


Launched 30 new SKUs during COVID-19 in multiple areas of health that can transform the company from herbal remedies into a bigger conglomerate of health providers. 
PE firm that backed SIDO in the earlier years reduced its holdings but it should not be seen as a vote of negative confidence in the company. 

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) can be compared to Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) which has a wide range of health products but trades at a 100% premium to SIDO. 


Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<p>In this insight, we evaluate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20582:1" rel="noopener">Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK)</a> 's results announced yesterday to assess its operational and financial outlook going forward. We discuss its valuations and investment potential and compare its stretched working capital cycle with industry peers, to address investor concerns on the same.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20582:1" rel="noopener">Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK)</a> has reported a steady recovery in 2H2020 revenue led by double-digit sequential growth in sales from Mainland China even as pandemic-induced weakness in the daigou trade persisted in the ANZ markets given travel restrictions continue to be in place. The growth in sales was mainly led by (1) new product launches in the Infant milk formula segment and extended offline distribution in China (2) online and cross border e-commerce for adult nutrition products. </p>

In this insight, we evaluate Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK) 's results announced yesterday to assess its operational and financial outlook going forward. We discuss its valuations and investment potential and compare its stretched working capital cycle with industry peers, to address investor concerns on the same.Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK) has reported a steady recovery in 2H2020 revenue led by double-digit sequential growth in sales from Mainland China even as pandemic-induced weakness in the daigou trade persisted in the ANZ markets given travel restrictions continue to be in place. The growth in sales was mainly led by (1) new product launches in the Infant milk formula segment and extended offline distribution in China (2) online and cross border e-commerce for adult nutrition products. 

Health & Happiness (1112 HK): 2H2020 -Strong Sales Growth in China Calms Daigou Pain. Stock Upside

<p>The vaccination has already started in Indonesia and although it may take 15 months to complete, it could be an early catalyst for investors to start booking profit on SIDO especially after it made 25% last year. The business will still grow as Tolak Angin remains the most affordable solution for an immune system compared to the other local and imported brands such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20582:1" rel="noopener">Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK)</a> Swisse, which are especially important when the health care system is already overwhelmed. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Despite a 25% increase in 2020, Sido is still trading at 5%, 14%, and 26% EV/EBITDA, PER, and PBR discount respectively to the peers. </p>
</div>

The vaccination has already started in Indonesia and although it may take 15 months to complete, it could be an early catalyst for investors to start booking profit on SIDO especially after it made 25% last year. The business will still grow as Tolak Angin remains the most affordable solution for an immune system compared to the other local and imported brands such as Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK) Swisse, which are especially important when the health care system is already overwhelmed. 

Despite a 25% increase in 2020, Sido is still trading at 5%, 14%, and 26% EV/EBITDA, PER, and PBR discount respectively to the peers. 


Sido Muncul (SIDO): Still the Most Affordable Solution in the Pandemic

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<p>MEGA reported 3Q18 net profit of Bt255m (+4%YoY, -12%QoQ). 9M18 result accounts for 63% of our full year forecast and is slightly below our expectation.</p>
<ul>
<li>Despite 10%YoY growth in 3Q18 sales, change in product mix caused a decline in gross margin to 41.8% compared to 44.9% in 3Q17. SG&amp;A-to-sales ratio also widened to 32.1% compared to 30.9% in 3Q17 due to rising marketing expenses related to distributing business.</li>
<li>Overall, 9M18 net profit grew 10%YoY driven by 8%YoY in sales growth with slight narrowing gross margin to 43.9% compared to 44.3%.</li>
</ul>
<p>We maintain our positive outlook toward its 4Q18 performance and beyond driven by seasonal effect in 4Q18 and gaining from marketing effort. We maintain our BUY rating with a target price of Bt43 based on DCF (12.5%WACC  , 0%TG</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/070/337/original/Picture2.jpg?1542598686" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="70337"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data</div>

MEGA reported 3Q18 net profit of Bt255m (+4%YoY, -12%QoQ). 9M18 result accounts for 63% of our full year forecast and is slightly below our expectation.

Despite 10%YoY growth in 3Q18 sales, change in product mix caused a decline in gross margin to 41.8% compared to 44.9% in 3Q17. SG&amp;A-to-sales ratio also widened to 32.1% compared to 30.9% in 3Q17 due to rising marketing expenses related to distributing business.
Overall, 9M18 net profit grew 10%YoY driven by 8%YoY in sales growth with slight narrowing gross margin to 43.9% compared to 44.3%.

We maintain our positive outlook toward its 4Q18 performance and beyond driven by seasonal effect in 4Q18 and gaining from marketing effort. We maintain our BUY rating with a target price of Bt43 based on DCF (12.5%WACC  , 0%TG

Sources: CGS Research, company data

MEGA: 3Q18 Result Is Slightly Below Our Expectation

Australia

Blackmores Limited manufactures and markets vitamin, herbal, mineral supplements and natural skin and hair treatment products in Australia and New Zealand. These products are supplied to the over the counter retail market and to health care professionals. The Company also has a line of natural beauty and aromatherapy products and its products are distributed in South East Asia.

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Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sido Muncul (SIDO): The Dawn of New Era

SIDO has gone full beast mode launching products in non-herbal remedies such as essential oil, and energy drinks (Gatorade lookalike), prompting...

Henry Soediarko

Health & Happiness (1112 HK): 2H2020 -Strong Sales Growth in China Calms Daigou Pain. Stock Upside

2H2020 improves earnings growth visibility, underpin stock upside. Attractive dividend yield offers strong downside protection. Quicker resumption...

Devi Subhakesan

Sido Muncul (SIDO): Still the Most Affordable Solution in the Pandemic

The vaccination already started in Indonesia and although it takes 15 months to complete, it could be an early catalyst for investors to book...

Henry Soediarko

MEGA: 3Q18 Result Is Slightly Below Our Expectation

MEGA reported 3Q18 net profit of Bt255m (+4%YoY, -12%QoQ). 9M18 result accounts for 63% of our full year forecast and is slightly below our...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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