Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> is eyeing the vitamin game with a proposal to buy Blackmores at AU$95 per share, representing a 23.7% premium over the stock's most recent closing price.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>'s expertise in navigating China's stringent regulations could be the missing piece for Kirin to gain access to the lucrative supplement market in China.</li>
<li>Our main concern is Kirin's history of unsuccessful overseas business acquisitions, particularly outside of its core beer business.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) is eyeing the vitamin game with a proposal to buy Blackmores at AU$95 per share, representing a 23.7% premium over the stock's most recent closing price.

Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)'s expertise in navigating China's stringent regulations could be the missing piece for Kirin to gain access to the lucrative supplement market in China.
Our main concern is Kirin's history of unsuccessful overseas business acquisitions, particularly outside of its core beer business.


Kirin's Bid for Blackmores: Leveraging Regulatory Expertise to Enter China's Supplement Market

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> has entered a binding proposal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> at A$95.00 per share, a 23.7% premium to the undisturbed price (16 April).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. Marcus Blackmore, the largest shareholder, will vote in favour of the offer. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming.   </li>
<li>The scheme meeting is in July. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a late August payment is 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) has entered a binding proposal with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) at A$95.00 per share, a 23.7% premium to the undisturbed price (16 April).
The offer is attractive. Marcus Blackmore, the largest shareholder, will vote in favour of the offer. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming.   
The scheme meeting is in July. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a late August payment is 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively.


Blackmores (BKL AU): Kirin’s Binding A$95.00 Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Japan's <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a></strong> has proposed taking Aussie vitamin play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a></strong> private by way of a Scheme at A$95/share. </li>
<li>That's a 23.7% premium to last close, and represents 23.1x LTM December 2022 EBITDA. </li>
<li>Irrevocables are 18% of shares out. This Scheme requires clearance from ACCC, FIRB - and China's SAMR.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has proposed taking Aussie vitamin play Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) private by way of a Scheme at A$95/share. 
That's a 23.7% premium to last close, and represents 23.1x LTM December 2022 EBITDA. 
Irrevocables are 18% of shares out. This Scheme requires clearance from ACCC, FIRB - and China's SAMR.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> has signed a Scheme Implementation Deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> for the acquisition of 100% of Blackmores by way of a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to the last close and is at least a 20% premium to most other VWAPs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> intends to pay a fully-franked special dividend of A$3.34/share. This will enable eligible shareholders to benefit from franking credits of A$1.43/share.</li>
</ul>



Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) has signed a Scheme Implementation Deed with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) for the acquisition of 100% of Blackmores by way of a scheme of arrangement.
The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to the last close and is at least a 20% premium to most other VWAPs.

Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) intends to pay a fully-franked special dividend of A$3.34/share. This will enable eligible shareholders to benefit from franking credits of A$1.43/share.


Blackmores (BKL AU) Signs SID with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 13th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Anz, Woodside Energy, Northern Star, Bhp, Pexa, Lynas Rare Earth, Champion Iron, Macquarie, Qbe Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 13th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Anz, Woodside Energy, Northern Star, Bhp, Pexa, Lynas Rare Earth, Champion Iron, Macquarie, Qbe Insurance.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 13th): Anz, Woodside, Northern Star, BHP

Australia

Blackmores Limited manufactures and markets vitamin, herbal, mineral supplements and natural skin and hair treatment products in Australia and New Zealand. These products are supplied to the over the counter retail market and to health care professionals. The Company also has a line of natural beauty and aromatherapy products and its products are distributed in South East Asia.

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Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)

Kirin's Bid for Blackmores: Leveraging Regulatory Expertise to Enter China's Supplement Market

Kirin Holdings is eyeing the vitamin game with a bold proposal to buy Blackmores at AU$95 per share, representing a 23.7% premium over the stock's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Blackmores (BKL AU): Kirin’s Binding A$95.00 Offer

The offer is attractive. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming. At the last close, the annualised spread for a late August payment is 2.2%.

Arun George

Kirin Looks To Take Blackmores Private

On balance, this looks done. The current share price of A$93.50 would seem to validate this. Trading tight at 1.6%/3.8% assuming late Sept...

David Blennerhassett

Blackmores (BKL AU) Signs SID with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Blackmores has signed a SID with Kirin. The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to last close and values Blackmores at A$1.85bn. A fully-franked...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 13th): Anz, Woodside, Northern Star, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Anz, Woodside, Northern Star, Bhp, Pexa, Lynas Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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