HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  </li>
<li>TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.</li>
</ul>


We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.

Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.


MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The healthcare and materials sectors have gained strength and momentum in Hong Kong over the last month, as the overall market has seen broader participation.</li>
<li>The market continues to see net outflows, although it has technically regained its trend support level, suggesting further gains in 2H26.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> shares have surged on positive news following the announcement of 1H26 earnings.  The company initiated a buyback earlier this year and announced its first dividend.
</li>
</ul>


The healthcare and materials sectors have gained strength and momentum in Hong Kong over the last month, as the overall market has seen broader participation.
The market continues to see net outflows, although it has technically regained its trend support level, suggesting further gains in 2H26.

Bloks Group (325 HK) shares have surged on positive news following the announcement of 1H26 earnings.  The company initiated a buyback earlier this year and announced its first dividend.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 2026)

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisure-holding-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43889:1" rel="noopener">Verisure Holding (VSURE SS)</a> is forecasted to be added to Global Standard following its IPO in October 2025, provided its index nationality is assigned to Sweden.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/servicetitan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44109:1" rel="noopener">ServiceTitan (TTAN US)</a> is expected to be added to Global SmallCap following its IPO lock-up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innoscience-suzhou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44185:1" rel="noopener">InnoScience (2577 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks (325 HK)</a> are projected IPO additions following their 12-month IPO lock-up expiry.</li>
</ul>



Verisure Holding (VSURE SS) is forecasted to be added to Global Standard following its IPO in October 2025, provided its index nationality is assigned to Sweden.

ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is expected to be added to Global SmallCap following its IPO lock-up.

InnoScience (2577 HK) and Bloks (325 HK) are projected IPO additions following their 12-month IPO lock-up expiry.


Global Index IPO Forecasts - Feb26: InnoScience, Bloks, Verisure, ServiceTitan Among Candidates

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks (325 HK)</a>  is expected to be assigned an index nationality of Hong Kong instead of China due to its incorporation in the Cayman Islands.</li>
<li>The security is expected to be added at the September 2025 review following the 6-month IPO lock-up expiry which increases the fcap above the APAC threshold.</li>
<li>The security is ineligible for the other global index until January 2026 because of the free float being below the minimum threshold of 15%.</li>
</ul>



Bloks (325 HK)  is expected to be assigned an index nationality of Hong Kong instead of China due to its incorporation in the Cayman Islands.
The security is expected to be added at the September 2025 review following the 6-month IPO lock-up expiry which increases the fcap above the APAC threshold.
The security is ineligible for the other global index until January 2026 because of the free float being below the minimum threshold of 15%.


Bloks (325 HK): Global Index Inclusion Following IPO Lock-Up Expiry

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.</li>
<li>Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. </li>
<li>The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.</li>
</ul>


Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.
Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. 
The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.


Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

China

Bloks Group is a toy manufacturer specializing in the design, development, and sales of brick-based and assembly character toys. The company offers both self-developed intellectual property products and licensed products from popular franchises. Bloks Group is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2014.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bloks Group (325 HK)

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 2026)

The healthcare and materials sectors have gained strength and momentum in Hong Kong over the last month, as the overall market has seen broader...

David Mudd

Global Index IPO Forecasts - Feb26: InnoScience, Bloks, Verisure, ServiceTitan Among Candidates

Forecasted inclusions for the Feb26 Global Index review from IPOs within the past year include Verisure, ServiceTitan, InnoScience and Bloks.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Bloks (325 HK): Global Index Inclusion Following IPO Lock-Up Expiry

Bloks is forecasted to be added to Global indices in Feb and Mar 2026 following lock-up expiries which increase free float and float cap above...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

​Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 2026)

The healthcare and materials sectors have gained strength and momentum in Hong Kong over the last month, as the overall market has seen broader...

David Mudd

Global Index IPO Forecasts - Feb26: InnoScience, Bloks, Verisure, ServiceTitan Among Candidates

Forecasted inclusions for the Feb26 Global Index review from IPOs within the past year include Verisure, ServiceTitan, InnoScience and Bloks.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Bloks (325 HK): Global Index Inclusion Following IPO Lock-Up Expiry

Bloks is forecasted to be added to Global indices in Feb and Mar 2026 following lock-up expiries which increase free float and float cap above...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

​Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...