Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sims-metal-management-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18184:1" rel="noopener">Sims Metal (SGM AU)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Bluescope (BSL AU) and short Sims (SGM AU) targets a 6% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal (SGM AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Bluescope (BSL AU) and short Sims (SGM AU) targets a 6% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long Bluescope (BSL AU) Vs. Short Sims (SGM AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Aussie Steel

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Residential consents down slightly but still solid (Mar.): Residential consents -1.2% mom seasonally adjusted but +7.5% yoy (previously +2.7%/+21.8% respectively), with 12m rolling up +11.0% yoy to 37.8k.</li><li>Fletcher Building has agreed to sell its Fletcher Reinforcing and Wire business to United Industries for NZ$15.7m, as part of its strategy to simplify the group.</li><li>Stockland CEO Tarun Gupta warned surging input cost inflation linked to geopolitical tensions is placing pressure on housing development feasibility, with a ‘major, major slowdown’ likely unless supported by lower interest rates and policy intervention.</li></ul>

Residential consents down slightly but still solid (Mar.): Residential consents -1.2% mom seasonally adjusted but +7.5% yoy (previously +2.7%/+21.8% respectively), with 12m rolling up +11.0% yoy to 37.8k.Fletcher Building has agreed to sell its Fletcher Reinforcing and Wire business to United Industries for NZ$15.7m, as part of its strategy to simplify the group.Stockland CEO Tarun Gupta warned surging input cost inflation linked to geopolitical tensions is placing pressure on housing development feasibility, with a ‘major, major slowdown’ likely unless supported by lower interest rates and policy intervention.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-worldwide-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22690:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)</a> has disclosed a binding proposal from Brookfield at US$3.38 (A$4.75), a 31.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The required regulatory approvals are low-risk. AusSuper, with a potentially blocking stake, has yet to disclose its voting intentions. This is the primary source of uncertainty for the scheme. </li>
<li>RWC's Go-Shop was built with the Origin precedent in mind. While not neutralising the risk, it makes it harder for AusSuper to argue that the board didn't test the market.  </li>
</ul>



Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU) has disclosed a binding proposal from Brookfield at US$3.38 (A$4.75), a 31.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The required regulatory approvals are low-risk. AusSuper, with a potentially blocking stake, has yet to disclose its voting intentions. This is the primary source of uncertainty for the scheme. 
RWC's Go-Shop was built with the Origin precedent in mind. While not neutralising the risk, it makes it harder for AusSuper to argue that the board didn't test the market.  


Reliance Worldwide (RWC AU): Brookfield’s Binding Offer with a Go-Shop Period to Placate AusSuper

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>Industrial conglomerate SGH Ltd reported a lacklustre FY26, slightly below consensus, while guidance for more of the same disappointed the market.</li><li> SGH Ltd&rsquo;s FY26 performance falls slightly short Management's FY27 guidance perceived as underwhelming Analysts agree FY27 is a transition year, unless M&A success follows Growth is anticipated to return from FY28</li></ul>

Industrial conglomerate SGH Ltd reported a lacklustre FY26, slightly below consensus, while guidance for more of the same disappointed the market. SGH Ltd&rsquo;s FY26 performance falls slightly short Management's FY27 guidance perceived as underwhelming Analysts agree FY27 is a transition year, unless M&A success follows Growth is anticipated to return from FY28

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecasts</li><li>Australia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residential</li><li>International: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis</li></ul>

New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecastsAustralia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residentialInternational: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis

Australia

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)

Long Bluescope (BSL AU) Vs. Short Sims (SGM AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Aussie Steel

Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal (SGM AU) price-ratio presents a 6% return opportunity for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Building News Wrap

Residential consents down slightly but still solid (Mar.): Residential consents -1.2% mom seasonally adjusted but +7.5% yoy (previously...

Forsyth Barr

Reliance Worldwide (RWC AU): Brookfield’s Binding Offer with a Go-Shop Period to Placate AusSuper

RWC's Go-Shop was built with the Origin precedent in mind. While not neutralising the risk, it makes it harder for AusSuper to argue that the board...

Arun George

Transition Year Ahead For SGH

Industrial conglomerate SGH Ltd reported a lacklustre FY26, slightly below consensus, while guidance for more of the same disappointed the...

FNArena

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Long Bluescope (BSL AU) Vs. Short Sims (SGM AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Aussie Steel

​Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal (SGM AU) price-ratio presents a 6% return opportunity for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Building News Wrap

Residential consents down slightly but still solid (Mar.): Residential consents -1.2% mom seasonally adjusted but +7.5% yoy (previously...

Forsyth Barr

Reliance Worldwide (RWC AU): Brookfield’s Binding Offer with a Go-Shop Period to Placate AusSuper

RWC's Go-Shop was built with the Origin precedent in mind. While not neutralising the risk, it makes it harder for AusSuper to argue that the board...

Arun George

Transition Year Ahead For SGH

Industrial conglomerate SGH Ltd reported a lacklustre FY26, slightly below consensus, while guidance for more of the same disappointed the...

FNArena

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal (SGM AU) price-ratio presents a 6% return opportunity for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion...