Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

Macro and Australian equity strategist, Macro Strategy Advisors

Shane Lee

Macro and Australian equity strategist

Macro Strategy Advisors

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Despite relatively sluggish price performance, the ASX 200 has provided global investors with strong returns that have seen it outperform both Japan and Europe over the past few years. The market also performs well late in the global cycle when global volatility is rising because a relatively large component of returns are generated by dividends and many stocks in the ASX 200 are dominant players in their markets or they operate in small markets making earnings more defendable under late cycle cost pressures. </li>
<li>
When looking at Australia as a late-cycle opportunity, earnings quality is an important screen to consider. Stocks with good earnings quality attract the highest PE multiples and the strongest Buy recommendations.  However, in this note, we screen the ASX 200 universe for both longer-term and short-term movements in earnings quality and analyse how these movements translate into returns. </li>
<li>
FMG, WTC, XRO, WHC, LYC, MQG, S32, NHC, SAR, WEB have the distinction of making the top 50 stocks with the strongest earnings quality improvement and the list of top 50 stocks with the largest outperformance during the past 3 years. In contrast, TAH, SDA, NCM, and NHF have all seen large declines in earnings quality and have underperformed during this period. </li>
<li>
During the most recent half-year results period, NHC, SOL, BXB, VOC, SAR, BVS, IRE, IPH, and QBE made the list of stocks with the largest improvement in earnings quality and the list of top 50 stocks with the best performance. AGL, BSL, and ASL saw the largest decline in earnings quality and this coupled with underperformance.  In contrast, STO performed well, despite having declining earnings quality suggesting some underperformance could be expected. </li>
<li>
QBE is unique in that it has seen not only a strong lift in earnings quality during the half, but it has also seen its EPS growth upgraded. LNK saw a large decline in earnings quality but saw a large number of upgrades that put it in the list of top 50 most upgraded stocks during the period. </li>
<li>
WTC and S32 are in our model portfolio in our recent shift to realign it towards Resources and Growth stocks after the Q4 18 sell-off. Our work quality shows they have been good earnings quality stocks and this supports our decision to include these stocks in our portfolio.</li>
</ul>



Despite relatively sluggish price performance, the ASX 200 has provided global investors with strong returns that have seen it outperform both Japan and Europe over the past few years. The market also performs well late in the global cycle when global volatility is rising because a relatively large component of returns are generated by dividends and many stocks in the ASX 200 are dominant players in their markets or they operate in small markets making earnings more defendable under late cycle cost pressures. 

When looking at Australia as a late-cycle opportunity, earnings quality is an important screen to consider. Stocks with good earnings quality attract the highest PE multiples and the strongest Buy recommendations.  However, in this note, we screen the ASX 200 universe for both longer-term and short-term movements in earnings quality and analyse how these movements translate into returns. 

FMG, WTC, XRO, WHC, LYC, MQG, S32, NHC, SAR, WEB have the distinction of making the top 50 stocks with the strongest earnings quality improvement and the list of top 50 stocks with the largest outperformance during the past 3 years. In contrast, TAH, SDA, NCM, and NHF have all seen large declines in earnings quality and have underperformed during this period. 

During the most recent half-year results period, NHC, SOL, BXB, VOC, SAR, BVS, IRE, IPH, and QBE made the list of stocks with the largest improvement in earnings quality and the list of top 50 stocks with the best performance. AGL, BSL, and ASL saw the largest decline in earnings quality and this coupled with underperformance.  In contrast, STO performed well, despite having declining earnings quality suggesting some underperformance could be expected. 

QBE is unique in that it has seen not only a strong lift in earnings quality during the half, but it has also seen its EPS growth upgraded. LNK saw a large decline in earnings quality but saw a large number of upgrades that put it in the list of top 50 most upgraded stocks during the period. 

WTC and S32 are in our model portfolio in our recent shift to realign it towards Resources and Growth stocks after the Q4 18 sell-off. Our work quality shows they have been good earnings quality stocks and this supports our decision to include these stocks in our portfolio.


Quality Counts: A Screen of ASX 200 Earnings Quality

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 19 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and eight sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 19 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and eight sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid Cap portfolio. We move to update this list with a strong bias to the mid-cap stocks appearing.This screen performs well with markets where the value style is in favour. Given the market appears to be trending back to this style, we believe the Small-Mid Cap universe should capitalise on this over the next 12-months. We identify within the screen some high trading liquidity deep value candidates across the Asia Pacific universe.Our updated 2019 list of names contains 17 stocks, with a more diversified spread of countries and sectors, compared to April 2018. A point to note is that basic material stocks have strengthened within the composition. Interestingly, the style of stock which has increased its presence amongst the list is the contrarian style, highlighting an opening up in value.

In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid Cap portfolio. We move to update this list with a strong bias to the mid-cap stocks appearing.This screen performs well with markets where the value style is in favour. Given the market appears to be trending back to this style, we believe the Small-Mid Cap universe should capitalise on this over the next 12-months. We identify within the screen some high trading liquidity deep value candidates across the Asia Pacific universe.Our updated 2019 list of names contains 17 stocks, with a more diversified spread of countries and sectors, compared to April 2018. A point to note is that basic material stocks have strengthened within the composition. Interestingly, the style of stock which has increased its presence amongst the list is the contrarian style, highlighting an opening up in value.

Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth (751 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/european-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10716:1" rel="noopener">European Lithium (EUR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-titanium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12709:1" rel="noopener">Toho Titanium (5727 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-grand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1821:1" rel="noopener">E'grand Co Ltd (3294 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9672:1" rel="noopener">Global Ltd/The (3271 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), Qoria (QOR AU), European Lithium (EUR AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU).

Lowest spreads: Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), Toho Titanium (5727 JP), E'grand Co Ltd (3294 JP), Global Ltd/The (3271 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (11 May) - Altas, European Lithium, Atlantic Lithium, Vault, Emmerson, Shengmu

Australia

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

Quality Counts: A Screen of ASX 200 Earnings Quality

Despite relatively sluggish price performance, the ASX 200 has provided global investors with strong returns that have seen it outperform both...

Shane Lee

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid...

David Lepper

Merger Arb Mondays (11 May) - Altas, European Lithium, Atlantic Lithium, Vault, Emmerson, Shengmu

The Ontario Teachers’ ROFO acceptance period has expired. While the Board is exploring other opportunities, the Takeover Panel notes “that there...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

Quality Counts: A Screen of ASX 200 Earnings Quality

Despite relatively sluggish price performance, the ASX 200 has provided global investors with strong returns that have seen it outperform both...

Shane Lee

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

​Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid...

David Lepper

Merger Arb Mondays (11 May) - Altas, European Lithium, Atlantic Lithium, Vault, Emmerson, Shengmu

The Ontario Teachers’ ROFO acceptance period has expired. While the Board is exploring other opportunities, the Takeover Panel notes “that there...

Arun George

Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.