External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturities</li><li>Based on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risks</li><li>Our analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturitiesBased on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risksOur analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate hike of 25 bps in September 2023 has seen its policy rates edge to an all- time high of 4%, increasing pressure on the real economy across the Eurozone and signalling that the region’s fight against inflation is likely to continue for longer and into 2025.</li><li>The threat of an oncoming widespread recession in the Euro area is already flashing signs of red in the credit profiles of the Eurozone’s banking sector, with funding costs for households and corporates likely to remain at record-high levels till the middle of next year.</li><li>As seen from the change in Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) since the ECB began its monetary tightening campaign in July 2022, credit profiles of banks across the Eurozone have been worsening, especially those domiciled in Germany, France, and Italy.</li></ul>

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate hike of 25 bps in September 2023 has seen its policy rates edge to an all- time high of 4%, increasing pressure on the real economy across the Eurozone and signalling that the region’s fight against inflation is likely to continue for longer and into 2025.The threat of an oncoming widespread recession in the Euro area is already flashing signs of red in the credit profiles of the Eurozone’s banking sector, with funding costs for households and corporates likely to remain at record-high levels till the middle of next year.As seen from the change in Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) since the ECB began its monetary tightening campaign in July 2022, credit profiles of banks across the Eurozone have been worsening, especially those domiciled in Germany, France, and Italy.

Credit Profile of Eurozone Banks Worsens as Recession Risk Rises

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.</li><li>A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.</li><li>The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.</li></ul>

The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse was announced for $ 3.25 billion below Friday's closing market capitalization of $7.87 billion.</li><li>SNB will take the first loss of $9.7 billion and provide $100 billion of liquidity.</li><li>Central Bank support triggers Credit Suisse AT1 capital write-downs of approximately $17.</li></ul>

The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse was announced for $ 3.25 billion below Friday's closing market capitalization of $7.87 billion.SNB will take the first loss of $9.7 billion and provide $100 billion of liquidity.Central Bank support triggers Credit Suisse AT1 capital write-downs of approximately $17.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points.</li><li>Investment strategy: We suggest stocks related to China's reopening in response to the country's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs beating the expectations.</li><li>We also recommend tourism stocks, as they directly benefit from the reopening of China and the expansion in the service sector, which has boosted purchasing power and the number of tourist arrivals to Thailand.</li></ul>

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points.Investment strategy: We suggest stocks related to China's reopening in response to the country's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs beating the expectations.We also recommend tourism stocks, as they directly benefit from the reopening of China and the expansion in the service sector, which has boosted purchasing power and the number of tourist arrivals to Thailand.

France

BNP Paribas S.A. attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, private and corporate banking services.  The Bank also provides asset management and investment advisory services to institutions and individuals in Europe, the United States, Asia and the Emerging Markets.

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BNP Paribas (BNP FP)

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer...

ABN AMRO

Credit Profile of Eurozone Banks Worsens as Recession Risk Rises

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate hike of 25 bps in September 2023 has seen its policy rates edge to an all- time high of 4%,...

Criat

Special Report: Bank Runs

The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Krungthai XSpring

Risk: Should Move to Another Coliseum

The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse was announced for $ 3.25 billion below Friday's closing market capitalization of $7.87 billion.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points. Investment strategy:...

Krungthai XSpring

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