Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  </li>
<li>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   </li>
<li>These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)</li>
</ul>


Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   
These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)


Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.</li><li>Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.</li><li>Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.</li></ul>

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We believe a major rights offering capital raise is likely for Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) in the next 1-2 years.</li>
<li>On 25 August, Korean Air announced a 70 trillion won investment plan in the United States. This plan is likely to have been pressured heavily by the Korean government. </li>
<li>A big problem with this plan is Korean Air does not produce enough cash flow and its balance sheet is not strong enough to invest such huge amounts of capital. </li>
</ul>


We believe a major rights offering capital raise is likely for Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) in the next 1-2 years.
On 25 August, Korean Air announced a 70 trillion won investment plan in the United States. This plan is likely to have been pressured heavily by the Korean government. 
A big problem with this plan is Korean Air does not produce enough cash flow and its balance sheet is not strong enough to invest such huge amounts of capital. 


Korean Air: A Major Rights Offering Capital Raise Likely In Next 1-2 Years

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Firefly Aerospace / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The company will be offering 16.2mm shares at $35-$39 with an expected market cap between $4.9b and $5.5b and to debut on August 7th.</li>
<li>According to our sources, the deal is being classified as multiple-times oversubscribed.</li>
<li>FireFly is in growth mode and the ability to scale with improving margins and a significant and visible backlog makes this deal extremely attractive. </li>
</ul>


The company will be offering 16.2mm shares at $35-$39 with an expected market cap between $4.9b and $5.5b and to debut on August 7th.
According to our sources, the deal is being classified as multiple-times oversubscribed.
FireFly is in growth mode and the ability to scale with improving margins and a significant and visible backlog makes this deal extremely attractive. 


Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY): Industry Tailwinds, Lucrative Backlog Highlight Bull Case for IPO

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

<ul><li>Earlier this month, Substack writer <a href="https://x.com/gezzogero" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gezzogero</a> mentioned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeroedge-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40248" rel="noopener">AeroEdge (7409 JP)</a> (7409 JP — US$88 million) on his blog.</li><li>I thought it was a fantastic write-up and wanted to dig into it myself.</li><li>The company is a supplier of aircraft components. It manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded LEAP jet engine, which is used in narrow-body aircraft such as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbus-group-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21380" rel="noopener">Airbus (AIR FP)</a> A320neo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boeing-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11957" rel="noopener">Boeing (BA US)</a> 737 MAX.</li></ul>

Earlier this month, Substack writer Gezzogero mentioned AeroEdge (7409 JP) (7409 JP — US$88 million) on his blog.I thought it was a fantastic write-up and wanted to dig into it myself.The company is a supplier of aircraft components. It manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded LEAP jet engine, which is used in narrow-body aircraft such as the Airbus (AIR FP) A320neo and Boeing (BA US) 737 MAX.

United States

The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft, as well as provides related support services to the commercial airline industry worldwide.  The Company also researches, develops, produces, modifies, and supports information, space, and defense systems, including military aircraft, helicopters and space and missile systems.

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Boeing Co (BA US)

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Korean Air: A Major Rights Offering Capital Raise Likely In Next 1-2 Years

We believe a major rights offering capital raise is likely for Korean Air in the next 1-2 years. On 25 August, Korean Air announced a 70 trillion...

Douglas Kim

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY): Industry Tailwinds, Lucrative Backlog Highlight Bull Case for IPO

FireFly set to debut on August 7th with 16.2mm shares offered at $35-$39, deal classified as oversubscribed, company in growth mode with promising...

IPO Boutique

AeroEdge (7409 JP)

AeroEdge (7409 JP) is a Japanese version of Precision Castparts at 12x 2027e P/E; it manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded...

Asian Century Stocks

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Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

​Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Korean Air: A Major Rights Offering Capital Raise Likely In Next 1-2 Years

We believe a major rights offering capital raise is likely for Korean Air in the next 1-2 years. On 25 August, Korean Air announced a 70 trillion...

Douglas Kim

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY): Industry Tailwinds, Lucrative Backlog Highlight Bull Case for IPO

​FireFly set to debut on August 7th with 16.2mm shares offered at $35-$39, deal classified as oversubscribed, company in growth mode with promising...

IPO Boutique

AeroEdge (7409 JP)

AeroEdge (7409 JP) is a Japanese version of Precision Castparts at 12x 2027e P/E; it manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded...

Asian Century Stocks

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

FireFly set to debut on August 7th with 16.2mm shares offered at $35-$39, deal classified as oversubscribed, company in growth mode with promising...