Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Exemption Could Add To IPO Pipeline: Mainland China is planning to exempt companies seeking to list on Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] from first seeking approval from the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). The idea behind the exemption is mainland Chinese Hong Kong IPOs were already subject to higher scrutiny and approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC); and *Risks Are Increasing: In addition to an extended valuation when ADT has begun to turn and having a new CEO with no exchange experience, HKEX needs to contend with the government’s examination of a stamp duty increase and mainland China’s contemplation of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center.

*Exemption Could Add To IPO Pipeline: Mainland China is planning to exempt companies seeking to list on Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] from first seeking approval from the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). The idea behind the exemption is mainland Chinese Hong Kong IPOs were already subject to higher scrutiny and approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC); and *Risks Are Increasing: In addition to an extended valuation when ADT has begun to turn and having a new CEO with no exchange experience, HKEX needs to contend with the government’s examination of a stamp duty increase and mainland China’s contemplation of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center. 

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Take It When You Can Get It

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<h3>In this Insight </h3>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>: Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inox-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1999:1" rel="noopener">Inox Leisure (INOL IN)</a>: We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/computer-age-management-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28843:1" rel="noopener">Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN)</a>: Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>: Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. 
<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
<div>
Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
</div>

In this Insight 
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN): Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.
PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) &amp; Inox Leisure (INOL IN): We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). 
Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN): Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. 
Marico Ltd (MRCO IN): Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. 
About India Channel Insight

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

*Glittering Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 1Q21 earnings of HKD 3.8 bn, improving HKD 915 mn (31.3%) linked quarter. Results were even more impressive when we exclude investment income (declined HKD 363 mn or 43.8% linked quarter) – increasing HKD 1.3 bn (61.0%) to HKD 3.4 bn. Results were highlighted by HKEX’ positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue increased HKD 1.2 bn (28.6%) while operating expenses declined HKD 194 mn (14.5%) over the period;  and*Risks Are Increasing: In addition to an extended valuation when ADT has begun to turn and having a new CEO with no exchange experiences, HKEX needs to contend with the government’s examination of a stamp duty increase and mainland China’s contemplation of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center.

*Glittering Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 1Q21 earnings of HKD 3.8 bn, improving HKD 915 mn (31.3%) linked quarter. Results were even more impressive when we exclude investment income (declined HKD 363 mn or 43.8% linked quarter) – increasing HKD 1.3 bn (61.0%) to HKD 3.4 bn. Results were highlighted by HKEX’ positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue increased HKD 1.2 bn (28.6%) while operating expenses declined HKD 194 mn (14.5%) over the period;  and*Risks Are Increasing: In addition to an extended valuation when ADT has begun to turn and having a new CEO with no exchange experiences, HKEX needs to contend with the government’s examination of a stamp duty increase and mainland China’s contemplation of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Golden Quarter, But Risks Are High

*Solid March Trading Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported strong FY 3Q21 securities and derivatives volumes due to improving market caps and velocity. Securities value traded and average daily trading vale (ADTV) increased 50% and 24% MOM in March, respectively. Derivative volumes also improved 31% MOM to 23.2 mn contracts, reaching a new peak since July 2020; and *A Wrench Thrown Into SGX’s SPAC Plan:  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued accounting guidance for SPACs, calling warrant issuance by SPACs liabilities rather than equity instruments. This could disrupt new SPAC filings, and certainly throw a wrench into SGX’s SPAC plans.

*Solid March Trading Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported strong FY 3Q21 securities and derivatives volumes due to improving market caps and velocity. Securities value traded and average daily trading vale (ADTV) increased 50% and 24% MOM in March, respectively. Derivative volumes also improved 31% MOM to 23.2 mn contracts, reaching a new peak since July 2020; and *A Wrench Thrown Into SGX’s SPAC Plan:  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued accounting guidance for SPACs, calling warrant issuance by SPACs liabilities rather than equity instruments. This could disrupt new SPAC filings, and certainly throw a wrench into SGX’s SPAC plans.

Singapore Exchange – Solid Quarter, But SPAC Setback

*Poor Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 4Q20 earnings of HKD 2.9 bn, declining HKD 522 mn (15.6%) linked quarter. Results were challenged on many fronts, as evidenced by HKEX’ negative operating jaws during the period, whereby revenues declined HKD 210 mn (4.0%) whilst expenses jumped HKD 187 mn (13.2%)– pushing its C/I ratio higher by 480 bp to 31.4%; and*Stamp Dutied: Despite the poor showing during 4Q20, the real story for HKEX is the issue of the stamp duty which likely will impact earnings and market sentiment for the foreseeable future. Given the financial stress of the pandemic on the finances of the Hong Kong government,  on February 24, 2021 it was announced that there would be a 3 bp or 30% increase in the stamp duty to help offset the government budget deficit.

*Poor Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 4Q20 earnings of HKD 2.9 bn, declining HKD 522 mn (15.6%) linked quarter. Results were challenged on many fronts, as evidenced by HKEX’ negative operating jaws during the period, whereby revenues declined HKD 210 mn (4.0%) whilst expenses jumped HKD 187 mn (13.2%)– pushing its C/I ratio higher by 480 bp to 31.4%; and*Stamp Dutied: Despite the poor showing during 4Q20, the real story for HKEX is the issue of the stamp duty which likely will impact earnings and market sentiment for the foreseeable future. Given the financial stress of the pandemic on the finances of the Hong Kong government,  on February 24, 2021 it was announced that there would be a 3 bp or 30% increase in the stamp duty to help offset the government budget deficit.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hitting The Wall

India

Bombay Stock Exchange Limited provides market for trading in equity, debt instruments, derivatives, and mutual funds. The Company offers services including risk management, clearing, settlement, market data services, and education. Bombay Stock Exchange serves customers in India. ... More

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE IN)

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Take It When You Can Get It

HONG HONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: Mainland China is planning to exempt listings on HKEX from seeking CAC approval, as Mainland IPOs are subject to...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

Channel interactions are an integral part of our research process. For this insight, we interact with channels and share our views on the likely...

Pranav Bhavsar

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Golden Quarter, But Risks Are High

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: HKEX 1Q21 operating earnings increased 61.0% QOQ, highlighted by positive operating jaws. HKEX needs to contend a...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange – Solid Quarter, But SPAC Setback

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX reported strong securities/derivatives volumes on improving market caps/velocity. The U.S. SEC, however, issued SPAC...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hitting The Wall

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: HKEX reported a 15.6% QOQ decline in 4Q20 earnings, given the period's negative operating jaws. The story is the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)