Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Hindalco Industries, Adani Enterprises, Grasim Industries, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Hindalco Industries, Adani Enterprises, Grasim Industries, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Aug): Hindalco Industries, Adani Enterprises, Grasim Industries

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

India

Bosch Limited manufactures a wide range of automotive parts. The Company'products includes fuel injection pumps, spark plugs, including nozzles and nozzle holders, elements, delivery valves, filters and filter inserts, glow plugs, starter motors, alternators and wipers. Bosch also manufactures hydraulics and pneumatic equipment and electric power tools and fixtures.

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Bosch Ltd (BOS IN)

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Aug): Hindalco Industries, Adani Enterprises, Grasim Industries

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN), Adani Enterprises (ADE/S IN), Grasim...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

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