Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices</li>
<li>The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   </li>
<li>We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices
The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   
We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.


A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

<ul>
<li>Recently a note on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a> was published on SK. Being a potential game changer, we analyzed technical publications to see how well the company is positioned</li>
<li>Currently, Shockwave Medical is likely the only player in the intravascular lithotripsy market. As the intravascular device deals with calcified lesions, its primary competition is from the atherectomy market </li>
<li>Despite being a recent company with a new technology it ranks third in innovating in the area of - removing/modifying obstructions, calculi and pre-procedure preparation for intravascular intervention.</li>
</ul>


Recently a note on Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) was published on SK. Being a potential game changer, we analyzed technical publications to see how well the company is positioned
Currently, Shockwave Medical is likely the only player in the intravascular lithotripsy market. As the intravascular device deals with calcified lesions, its primary competition is from the atherectomy market 
Despite being a recent company with a new technology it ranks third in innovating in the area of - removing/modifying obstructions, calculi and pre-procedure preparation for intravascular intervention.


Datamining Tech Publications to Assess Shockwave's Paradigm Shift Solution In Vascular Interventions

While modern pharmacology has been able to produce new medicines to treat or manage most diseases, these drugs often cause unpredictable side effects, which sometimes lead to the development of secondary diseases, especially for chronic conditions. One possible alternative to the problem of sustained use of drugs is electro, radiation, and ultrasound therapy. 
In the area of electrotherapy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boston-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11115:1" rel="noopener">Boston Scientific (BSX US)</a> are the clear leaders by far, with dominance in the number of innovations, positive mentions, and impact of their innovations. However, with the increased use of electrotherapy for pain management and physiotherapy smaller players with unique products now compete in specific silos. Three small-cap names that screen well technologically are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nevro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2218:1" rel="noopener">Nevro Corp (NVRO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvasive-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8384:1" rel="noopener">Nuvasive Inc (NUVA US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integer-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18313:1" rel="noopener">Greatbatch Inc (ITGR US)</a>.
In Radiotherapy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-healthineers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29221:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Healthineers AG (SHL GR)</a>  leads the field.  Surprisingly a private company Aerin Medical which provides treatment options for chronic nasal conditions and is a play on rising allergies and sleep apnoea comes in second
In Ultrasound therapy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1132:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US)</a> tops the list. A small-cap company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/butterfly-network-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33050:1" rel="noopener">Butterfly Network Inc (BFLY US)</a> prima facie seems to have products that could potentially change the way ultrasound scans are performed as their technologies allow for use of small portable equipment in conjunction with a smartphone or tablet to create an ultrasound machine.

While modern pharmacology has been able to produce new medicines to treat or manage most diseases, these drugs often cause unpredictable side effects, which sometimes lead to the development of secondary diseases, especially for chronic conditions. One possible alternative to the problem of sustained use of drugs is electro, radiation, and ultrasound therapy. 
In the area of electrotherapy, Medtronic Plc (MDT US) and Boston Scientific (BSX US) are the clear leaders by far, with dominance in the number of innovations, positive mentions, and impact of their innovations. However, with the increased use of electrotherapy for pain management and physiotherapy smaller players with unique products now compete in specific silos. Three small-cap names that screen well technologically are Nevro Corp (NVRO US), Nuvasive Inc (NUVA US), and Greatbatch Inc (ITGR US).
In Radiotherapy Siemens Healthineers AG (SHL GR)  leads the field.  Surprisingly a private company Aerin Medical which provides treatment options for chronic nasal conditions and is a play on rising allergies and sleep apnoea comes in second
In Ultrasound therapy, Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US) tops the list. A small-cap company Butterfly Network Inc (BFLY US) prima facie seems to have products that could potentially change the way ultrasound scans are performed as their technologies allow for use of small portable equipment in conjunction with a smartphone or tablet to create an ultrasound machine.

Stock Ideas Based on Data Mined from Technical Publications - Electro, Radio, & Ultrasound Therapies

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

On October 16, 2020, the government released a new policy for the intensive procurement of coronary stents, which kicked off the nationwide intensive procurement for high-value medical consumables. According to the policy, The amount of coronary stents purchased in the first year was around 1,074,000, accounting for about 70% of the national annual consumption of coronary stents. The results of this policy have a strong reference for the future expansion of high-value medical consumables' intensive procurement. On November 5, the policy was formally implemented and the result was released.

On October 16, 2020, the government released a new policy for the intensive procurement of coronary stents, which kicked off the nationwide intensive procurement for high-value medical consumables. According to the policy, The amount of coronary stents purchased in the first year was around 1,074,000, accounting for about 70% of the national annual consumption of coronary stents. The results of this policy have a strong reference for the future expansion of high-value medical consumables' intensive procurement. On November 5, the policy was formally implemented and the result was released.

Insights on China Healthcare Policy: New Intensive Procurement Policy for High-Value Medical Devices

United States

Boston Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets minimally invasive medical devices. The Company's products are used in interventional cardiology, cardiac rhythm management, peripheral interventions, electrophysiology, neurovascular intervention, endoscopy, urology, gynecology and neuromodulation.

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Boston Scientific (BSX US)

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

The $SPX reversed topside the 2-month downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023;...

Vermilion Research

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

Datamining Tech Publications to Assess Shockwave's Paradigm Shift Solution In Vascular Interventions

Shockwave’s intravascular lithotripsy product could become a game changer in dealing with coronary calcium and may offer a more effective solution...

Pyari Menon

Stock Ideas Based on Data Mined from Technical Publications - Electro, Radio, & Ultrasound Therapies

The report identifies companies best positioned in Electro, Radiation, and Ultrasound therapeutic technologies. These therapies are a safer...

Pyari Menon

Insights on China Healthcare Policy: New Intensive Procurement Policy for High-Value Medical Devices

The article analyzed potential impact of China's new intensive procurement policy on high-value medical devices. If interested in investing China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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