Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.</li>
<li>BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.</li>
<li>The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.


[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

<ul>
<li>BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. </li>
<li>BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  </li>
<li>Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. </li>
</ul>


BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. 
BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  
Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. 


BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.</li>
<li>Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.</li>
<li>BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.
Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.
BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.


[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

<ul>
<li>BP set to report its Q4 and 2024 earnings on 11/Feb, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively.</li>
<li>As of 06/Feb, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 35.21%, with an IV rank of 82.9% and an IV percentile of 99%.</li>
<li>BP's OI by strike for the 07/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 31.5, 32, and 32.5, while puts dominate at 29.5, 30, and 30.5.</li>
</ul>


BP set to report its Q4 and 2024 earnings on 11/Feb, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively.
As of 06/Feb, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 35.21%, with an IV rank of 82.9% and an IV percentile of 99%.
BP's OI by strike for the 07/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 31.5, 32, and 32.5, while puts dominate at 29.5, 30, and 30.5.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Optimism Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. </li>
<li>BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.</li>
<li>BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.


[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Optimism Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

BP's Q4 earnings expected to decline, high implied volatility and options activity suggest mixed sentiment among investors.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

​BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

​BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Optimism Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

​BP's Q4 earnings expected to decline, high implied volatility and options activity suggest mixed sentiment among investors.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

BP's Q4 earnings expected to decline, high implied volatility and options activity suggest mixed sentiment among investors.

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...