Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.</li>
<li>Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.</li>
<li>Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.</li>
</ul>


Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.
Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.
Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.


Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Busy 1H26 – 3Q25 WI sales averaged 251 boe/d, in line with expectations.</li>
<li>The company held ~A$4 mm in cash at the end of September, also in line with forecasts.</li>
<li>A busy operational period is anticipated in 1H26.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Busy 1H26 – 3Q25 WI sales averaged 251 boe/d, in line with expectations.
The company held ~A$4 mm in cash at the end of September, also in line with forecasts.
A busy operational period is anticipated in 1H26.


Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.</li><li>Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.</li><li>Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

<ul><li>US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm.</li><li>Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a year ago.</li><li>Firm price-premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm.Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a year ago.Firm price-premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher

Western oil giants saw healthy profits in Q3 due to high refining margins and trading gains, driven by Ukrainian strikes and sanctions on Russia....

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/11/2025

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Busy 1H26 – 3Q25 WI sales averaged 251 boe/d, in line with expectations.

Auctus Advisors

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024. Ongoing...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm. Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a...

Base Oil News

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Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher

​Western oil giants saw healthy profits in Q3 due to high refining margins and trading gains, driven by Ukrainian strikes and sanctions on Russia....

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/11/2025

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Busy 1H26 – 3Q25 WI sales averaged 251 boe/d, in line with expectations.

Auctus Advisors

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024. Ongoing...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm. Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a...

Base Oil News

Western oil giants saw healthy profits in Q3 due to high refining margins and trading gains, driven by Ukrainian strikes and sanctions on Russia....