Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an integrated energy play with strong differentiating factors (trading, high-quality assets) but with a less aggressive tilt towards renewables, a strategic review of lubricants (Castrol) and a primary focus on maximising shareholder returns. In our view, this pivot could reduce its discount to peers. We believe oil and gas exposure is important in the construction of investors’ portfolios as it offsets the negative impact of energy price spikes.</p>

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an integrated energy play with strong differentiating factors (trading, high-quality assets) but with a less aggressive tilt towards renewables, a strategic review of lubricants (Castrol) and a primary focus on maximising shareholder returns. In our view, this pivot could reduce its discount to peers. We believe oil and gas exposure is important in the construction of investors’ portfolios as it offsets the negative impact of energy price spikes.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.</li><li>This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.</li><li>Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.</li></ul>

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.</li>
<li>Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.</li>
<li>Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.</li>
</ul>


Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.


Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.</li>
<li>As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.</li>
<li>BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.</li>
</ul>


BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.
As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.
BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.


[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

United Kingdom

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

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BP PLC (BP/ LN)

bp — Focusing on returns and growth

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an...

Edison Investment Research

bp — Focusing on returns and growth

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an...

Edison Investment Research

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP. This comes amid a backdrop of...

Baptista Research

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Shell’s potential bid for BP could ignite Europe’s biggest energy merger in decades—driven by $70B in synergies, strategic alignment, and a deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

bp — Focusing on returns and growth

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an...

Edison Investment Research

bp — Focusing on returns and growth

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an...

Edison Investment Research

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP. This comes amid a backdrop of...

Baptista Research

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Shell’s potential bid for BP could ignite Europe’s biggest energy merger in decades—driven by $70B in synergies, strategic alignment, and a deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

​BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...