Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.</li>
<li>Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.</li>
<li>The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.</li>
</ul>


Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.
Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.
The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. </li>
<li>BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.</li>
<li>BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.


[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.</li>
<li>Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.</li>
<li>ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.
Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.
ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.</li>
<li>Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.</li>
<li>Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.</li>
</ul>


Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.
Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.
Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.


[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

United Kingdom

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

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BP PLC (BP/ LN)

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

​Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

​ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

​Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...