European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.</li>
<li>Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.</li>
<li>A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.</li>
</ul>


BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.


BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Equity Bottom-Up

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Italian Treasury sold an additional 12.5% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-monte-dei-paschi-di-sien" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21162:1" rel="noopener">Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM)</a>, raising €650 million as part of re-privatization efforts following the 2021 failed attempt.</li>
<li>The Treasury's divestment makes BMPS more appealing for buyers. BMPS still trades at attractive valuation multiples. The bank announces approval from the ECB for a €0.25 cash dividend per share. </li>
<li>Economy Minister Giorgetti and PM Meloni aim to boost competition through privatization, favoring a merger with another mid-sized Italian bank, possibly BPER Banca or Banco BPM.</li>
</ul>


The Italian Treasury sold an additional 12.5% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM), raising €650 million as part of re-privatization efforts following the 2021 failed attempt.
The Treasury's divestment makes BMPS more appealing for buyers. BMPS still trades at attractive valuation multiples. The bank announces approval from the ECB for a €0.25 cash dividend per share. 
Economy Minister Giorgetti and PM Meloni aim to boost competition through privatization, favoring a merger with another mid-sized Italian bank, possibly BPER Banca or Banco BPM.


AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Italy

BPER Banca S.p.A is a cooperative bank that operates branches throughout Italy.  The Bank attracts deposits and offers loans, credit cards, pension plans, investment funds, insurance, and asset management and online trading services.

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BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM)

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER’s partial bid for Sondrio leaves a 3.9% spread. Low acceptance, strategic backing, and possible reopening create an attractive short-term...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Reborn from Ashes and Possible Target

Italian Treasury sells 12.5% stake in BMPS, raising €650 million for re-privatization efforts. BMPS trades at attractive multiples and could be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER’s partial bid for Sondrio leaves a 3.9% spread. Low acceptance, strategic backing, and possible reopening create an attractive short-term...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Reborn from Ashes and Possible Target

​Italian Treasury sells 12.5% stake in BMPS, raising €650 million for re-privatization efforts. BMPS trades at attractive multiples and could be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Italian Treasury sells 12.5% stake in BMPS, raising €650 million for re-privatization efforts. BMPS trades at attractive multiples and could be...