Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<p>The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.</p><p>The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…</p>

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO)</a> is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.</li>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zegona-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25686:1" rel="noopener">Zegona Communications (ZEG LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a> following price rallies.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verallia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36586:1" rel="noopener">Verallia (VRLA FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-popolare-di-sondrio-scar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21166:1" rel="noopener">Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM)</a> following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.</li>
</ul>



Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO) is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.
The main forecasted additions are Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) and Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) following price rallies.
The main forecasted deletions are Verallia (VRLA FP) and Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM) following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.


STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.</li>
<li>With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.</li>
<li>The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.</li>
</ul>


BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.
With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.
The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.


BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

<ul>
<li>BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.</li>
<li>Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.</li>
<li>A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.</li>
</ul>


BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.


BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

Equity Bottom-Up

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Equity Bottom-Up

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>The Italian Treasury sold an additional 12.5% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-monte-dei-paschi-di-sien" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21162:1" rel="noopener">Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM)</a>, raising €650 million as part of re-privatization efforts following the 2021 failed attempt.</li>
<li>The Treasury's divestment makes BMPS more appealing for buyers. BMPS still trades at attractive valuation multiples. The bank announces approval from the ECB for a €0.25 cash dividend per share. </li>
<li>Economy Minister Giorgetti and PM Meloni aim to boost competition through privatization, favoring a merger with another mid-sized Italian bank, possibly BPER Banca or Banco BPM.</li>
</ul>


The Italian Treasury sold an additional 12.5% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM), raising €650 million as part of re-privatization efforts following the 2021 failed attempt.
The Treasury's divestment makes BMPS more appealing for buyers. BMPS still trades at attractive valuation multiples. The bank announces approval from the ECB for a €0.25 cash dividend per share. 
Economy Minister Giorgetti and PM Meloni aim to boost competition through privatization, favoring a merger with another mid-sized Italian bank, possibly BPER Banca or Banco BPM.


Italy

BPER Banca S.p.A. is an Italian banking group that provides a wide range of traditional banking services to individuals, corporate, and public entities. Its core activities include retail banking, corporate and investment banking, private banking, wealth management, and insurance. The company is headquartered in Modena, Italy, and was founded in 1867.

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BPER Banca (BPE IM)

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Uncertain inclusion: VENDB due to share class liquidity. High probability inclusions: ZEG and NDX1 following price rallies. High probability...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

Reopened BPER–Sondrio offer offers 2.5% spread in 5 days. Strong execution, high IRR, and merger optionality make this a short-duration arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER’s partial bid for Sondrio leaves a 3.9% spread. Low acceptance, strategic backing, and possible reopening create an attractive short-term...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Reborn from Ashes and Possible Target

Italian Treasury sells 12.5% stake in BMPS, raising €650 million for re-privatization efforts. BMPS trades at attractive multiples and could be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Uncertain inclusion: VENDB due to share class liquidity. High probability inclusions: ZEG and NDX1 following price rallies. High probability...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

Reopened BPER–Sondrio offer offers 2.5% spread in 5 days. Strong execution, high IRR, and merger optionality make this a short-duration arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER’s partial bid for Sondrio leaves a 3.9% spread. Low acceptance, strategic backing, and possible reopening create an attractive short-term...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Reborn from Ashes and Possible Target

​Italian Treasury sells 12.5% stake in BMPS, raising €650 million for re-privatization efforts. BMPS trades at attractive multiples and could be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Italian Treasury sells 12.5% stake in BMPS, raising €650 million for re-privatization efforts. BMPS trades at attractive multiples and could be...