Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Braskem’s Overweight stance is supported by its strategic relevance and government links, with distressed bond prices already reflecting substantial downside risk.</li>
<li>We find better value in lower-priced bonds, especially the 2030 notes yielding 32.0% for a 3.0-year duration, while we see elevated risk in the 2081 hybrids.</li>
<li>Near-Term outcomes hinge on liquidity solutions, policy relief, and January coupon clarity, though recent developments and potential secured financing improve the probability of an alternative resolution.</li>
</ul>


Braskem’s Overweight stance is supported by its strategic relevance and government links, with distressed bond prices already reflecting substantial downside risk.
We find better value in lower-priced bonds, especially the 2030 notes yielding 32.0% for a 3.0-year duration, while we see elevated risk in the 2081 hybrids.
Near-Term outcomes hinge on liquidity solutions, policy relief, and January coupon clarity, though recent developments and potential secured financing improve the probability of an alternative resolution.


Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Braskem's ESG as "Weak", in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Braskem's ESG as "Weak", in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Braskem's ESG as "Weak", in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Material", and Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Braskem's ESG as "Weak", in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Material", and Disclosure is "Strong".

<ul>
<li>Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).</li>
<li>We view Braskem Idesa's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Material" and Disclosure is "Strong".</li>
<li>Braskem Idesa (Bakide), a single-asset 75%/25% JV between Braskem and Idesa, is Mexico's largest polyethylene (PE) producer.</li>
</ul>


Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Braskem Idesa's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Material" and Disclosure is "Strong".
Braskem Idesa (Bakide), a single-asset 75%/25% JV between Braskem and Idesa, is Mexico's largest polyethylene (PE) producer.


Braskem Idesa - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Brazil

Braskem S.A. produces petrochemicals and generates electricity.  The Company produces ethylene, propylene, benzene, toluene, xylenes, butadiene, butene, isoprene, dicyclopentediene, MTBE, caprolactam, ammonium sulfate, cyclohexene, polyethylene theraphtalat, polyethylene, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC).

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Braskem SA (BRKM5 BZ)

Braskem 3Q25: Liquidity Strain Deepens as Bonds Remain in Distressed Territory

Braskem’s strategic relevance and distressed bond levels support our Overweight view, with lower-priced notes offering better protection as...

Leandro Gubler

Braskem - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Braskem's ESG as "Weak", in...

Lucror Analytics

Braskem - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

We view Braskem's ESG as "Weak", in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Material", and...

Lucror Analytics

Braskem Idesa - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Braskem Idesa's ESG as...

Lucror Analytics

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

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