Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> made a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750847-2A1492843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$3bn scrip offer</a> Aussie-listed equities manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).</a>
</li>
<li>Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT's asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.</li>
<li>PPT <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750947-2A1492987?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) made a $3bn scrip offer Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT's asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.
PPT rejected the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.


Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts' "Fair" Offer

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 29th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Liontown, BHP, Macquarie, NAB, Santos, Fortescue Metals, Woodside Energy, Evolution Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 29th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Liontown, BHP, Macquarie, NAB, Santos, Fortescue Metals, Woodside Energy, Evolution Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 29th): Liontown, BHP, Macquarie, NAB, Santos, Fortescue Metals

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Telstra, and CSL.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Telstra, and CSL.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 23rd): ANZ, Telstra, CSL

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> today announced a special dividend and return of capital totalling $2.72/share. That is 46% of yesterday's closing price. </li>
<li>This was not unexpected. Management had promised, media articles had proposed as much. Now it is coming through. </li>
<li>Despite an 11% jump in the forward ex-div price today, the stock is cheap on a FY23 basis.  </li>
</ul>



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) today announced a special dividend and return of capital totalling $2.72/share. That is 46% of yesterday's closing price. 
This was not unexpected. Management had promised, media articles had proposed as much. Now it is coming through. 
Despite an 11% jump in the forward ex-div price today, the stock is cheap on a FY23 basis.  


Boral's 45% Capital Return - Resetting Forward Expectations

M is for Milton. M is for Moribund, and Mortmain too.  There is a stubborn stickiness to Milton pricing which is surprising, especially given the inputs to the trade. This situation was outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53464" rel="noopener">Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</a>. The various impacts and influences were discussed further in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53551" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a>. There was followup with cool tables in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-s-marvelous-arm-meanders-along-marvelously" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54765" rel="noopener">Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously</a>. There was additional table-pounding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-still-marvelous-milton-arb-confirms-its-schedule-much-marvelousness-to-come" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55604" rel="noopener">The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come</a>. I assume readers may draw conclusions from the titles as to where I stand. It isn't any less marvelous today. Indeed it is mirific!Since the 22 June joint announcement of the intention of Listed Investment Corporation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> to merge with other Listed Investment Corporation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> ("WHSP"), both Milton and WHSP have traded significant excess volume.One question is HOW MUCH?The other question is DOES IT MATTER?We look at both questions below, and at the pricing and of the situation today.

M is for Milton. M is for Moribund, and Mortmain too.  There is a stubborn stickiness to Milton pricing which is surprising, especially given the inputs to the trade. This situation was outlined in Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb. The various impacts and influences were discussed further in Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb. There was followup with cool tables in Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously. There was additional table-pounding in The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come. I assume readers may draw conclusions from the titles as to where I stand. It isn't any less marvelous today. Indeed it is mirific!Since the 22 June joint announcement of the intention of Listed Investment Corporation Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) to merge with other Listed Investment Corporation Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) ("WHSP"), both Milton and WHSP have traded significant excess volume.One question is HOW MUCH?The other question is DOES IT MATTER?We look at both questions below, and at the pricing and of the situation today.

The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It's Mirific!)

Australia

Brickworks Limited manufactures and distributes clay products including brick, paver and floor tile products.  The Company also has investment interests in unlisted and listed companies along with property development activities.

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Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU)

Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts' "Fair" Offer

PPT is up 6.3% following the disclosure of SOL's approach. I'd be inclined to be long PPT here. SOL may up the ante. And PPT is trading bleow...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 29th): Liontown, BHP, Macquarie, NAB, Santos, Fortescue Metals

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Liontown, BHP, Macquarie, NAB, Santos, Fortescue...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 23rd): ANZ, Telstra, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Telstra, and CSL Limited.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Boral's 45% Capital Return - Resetting Forward Expectations

Boral has finally announced its massive capital return to shareholders after significant asset sales in the last 12 months. There is probably more...

Travis Lundy

The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It's Mirific!)

The Marvelous Milton Merger Trade is somewhat moribund, perhaps suffering from mortmain. But remains mirific. There is considerable skew and...

Travis Lundy

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