Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.</li>
<li>Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.</li>
<li>Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.</li>
</ul>


ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.
Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.
Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.


El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>'s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.
Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.</li>
<li>Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in <em>ad hoc</em> methodology.</li>
<li>Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.
Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.
Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.


July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

CEO, Helixtap

Farah Miller

Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

<ul><li>Highlights    • Market shift from premium to mid-tier brands   • Profit vs volume strategy hurting premium brands   • Mid-Tier brands expanding globally There is a lot of uncertainty around the ongoing tire demand and supply situation.</li><li>The first thing to note is that while demand is growing slightly, the distribution of sales between premium tire makers and less well-known brands is changing.</li><li>The transfer of market share away from the premium tire makers is rapid and appears to be accelerating.</li></ul>

Highlights    • Market shift from premium to mid-tier brands   • Profit vs volume strategy hurting premium brands   • Mid-Tier brands expanding globally There is a lot of uncertainty around the ongoing tire demand and supply situation.The first thing to note is that while demand is growing slightly, the distribution of sales between premium tire makers and less well-known brands is changing.The transfer of market share away from the premium tire makers is rapid and appears to be accelerating.

Tire Industry Faces Over Capacity As Mid Range Players Build Factories

Japan

BRIDGESTONE CORPORATION designs, produces, and sells automobile tires. The Company also produces and markets scales to weigh racing cars and jumbo aircrafts and sporting goods including golf equipment, tennis rackets, and bicycles.  Bridgestone operates its businesses worldwide.

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Bridgestone Corp (5108 JP)

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

Weather risk alone is not investable; palm oil and rubber matter because ASEAN supply buffers are thinner and transmission can show up in...

Duncan Chan

Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.

Sumeet Singh

July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

The TOPIX July FFW Review is more interesting than it would appear at first glance. There are some trades to do too. Watch Rakuten, Nippon Paint,...

Travis Lundy

Tire Industry Faces Over Capacity As Mid Range Players Build Factories

There is a lot of uncertainty around the ongoing tire demand and supply situation. The first thing to note is that while demand is growing...

Helixtap

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