Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Brightstar Lottery reported first quarter 2026 results showing modest reported revenue growth but stronger underlying momentum on a constant currency basis.</li><li>Revenue reached approximately $590 million, marking a 1% increase as reported and a 3% increase at constant currency, excluding service revenue amortization and the impact of the U.K. transition.</li><li>Growth was notably driven by Italy’s 3% same-store sales increase, supported by new premium Scratch & Win ticket launches, alongside favorable mix improvements in the U.S. Conversely, the U.K. transition and weak New Jersey multistate lottery market agreement (LMA) performance moderated growth.</li></ul>

Brightstar Lottery reported first quarter 2026 results showing modest reported revenue growth but stronger underlying momentum on a constant currency basis.Revenue reached approximately $590 million, marking a 1% increase as reported and a 3% increase at constant currency, excluding service revenue amortization and the impact of the U.K. transition.Growth was notably driven by Italy’s 3% same-store sales increase, supported by new premium Scratch & Win ticket launches, alongside favorable mix improvements in the U.S. Conversely, the U.K. transition and weak New Jersey multistate lottery market agreement (LMA) performance moderated growth.

Brightstar Lottery’s 36% U.S. iLottery Surge: Can Digital Offset Jackpot Weakness?

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

<ul>
<li>Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) reported solid Q2 2025 results and is delivering on every aspect of the original thesis I laid out in June.</li>
<li>The company has now begun executing on the largest capital return in its history: a $3.00 per share tax-free special dividend (paid July 29) and a $250MM accelerated share repurchase (ASR) — the first half of a $500MM buyback authorization.</li>
<li>Brightstar also reiterated that it will maintain its $160MM annual dividend, so with fewer shares outstanding, the per-share dividend will increase, potentially rising to ~$0.22–$0.24 per quarter.</li>
</ul>


Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) reported solid Q2 2025 results and is delivering on every aspect of the original thesis I laid out in June.
The company has now begun executing on the largest capital return in its history: a $3.00 per share tax-free special dividend (paid July 29) and a $250MM accelerated share repurchase (ASR) — the first half of a $500MM buyback authorization.
Brightstar also reiterated that it will maintain its $160MM annual dividend, so with fewer shares outstanding, the per-share dividend will increase, potentially rising to ~$0.22–$0.24 per quarter.


Brightstar Lottery Capital Return Continues to Exceed Expectations

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Galapagos NV (GLPG), a Belgian biotechnology company, announced on January 8, 2025, its plan to split into two publicly traded entities by mid-2025.</li>
<li>Vivendi (VIV), the French media conglomerate, has recently undergone a significant restructuring by spinning off several of its key divisions into independent entities.</li>
<li>On December 30, 2024, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) filed its latest proxy related to the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). <a href="https://www.bamsec.com/filing/119312524287096?cik=929351" target="_blank" rel="noopener">You can read it here</a>.</li>
</ul>


Galapagos NV (GLPG), a Belgian biotechnology company, announced on January 8, 2025, its plan to split into two publicly traded entities by mid-2025.
Vivendi (VIV), the French media conglomerate, has recently undergone a significant restructuring by spinning off several of its key divisions into independent entities.
On December 30, 2024, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) filed its latest proxy related to the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). You can read it here.


<ul><li>Brightstar Lottery reported earnings on May 12, delivering another solid quarter on an underlying basis.</li><li>Revenue was $587MM (+1% y/y) and adjusted EBITDA reached $287MM (+15% y/y), supported by 3.1% same-store sales growth in Italy, continued strength in iLottery (growing 20–30% y/y), and meaningful margin expansion to 48.9% from 42.8% as OPtiMa cost-savings initiatives took hold.</li><li>The company returned over $70MM to shareholders during the quarter through $30MM of buybacks and $42MM of dividends, maintained the quarterly dividend at $0.23 per share, and refinanced its revolver out to 2031 on improved terms.</li></ul>

Brightstar Lottery reported earnings on May 12, delivering another solid quarter on an underlying basis.Revenue was $587MM (+1% y/y) and adjusted EBITDA reached $287MM (+15% y/y), supported by 3.1% same-store sales growth in Italy, continued strength in iLottery (growing 20–30% y/y), and meaningful margin expansion to 48.9% from 42.8% as OPtiMa cost-savings initiatives took hold.The company returned over $70MM to shareholders during the quarter through $30MM of buybacks and $42MM of dividends, maintained the quarterly dividend at $0.23 per share, and refinanced its revolver out to 2031 on improved terms.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

United States

International Game Technology PLC designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes computerized gaming equipment, software, and network systems. The Company's products consist of slot machines, social gaming platforms, and other interactive gaming machines. International Games also provides maintenance services.

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Brightstar Lottery (BRSL US)

Brightstar Lottery’s 36% U.S. iLottery Surge: Can Digital Offset Jackpot Weakness?

Brightstar Lottery reported first quarter 2026 results showing modest reported revenue growth but stronger underlying momentum on a constant...

Baptista Research

Brightstar Lottery Capital Return Continues to Exceed Expectations

Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) reported solid Q2 2025 results and is delivering on every aspect of the original thesis I laid out in June. The company...

Richard Howe

Weekly Update: January 10, 2025

Galapagos NV (GLPG), a Belgian biotechnology company, announced on January 8, 2025, its plan to split into two publicly traded entities by mid-2025.

Richard Howe

Weekly Update (NVRI, STRZ, BRSL)

Brightstar Lottery reported earnings on May 12, delivering another solid quarter on an underlying basis. Revenue was $587MM (+1% y/y) and adjusted...

Richard Howe

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

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