Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation/Capex in Q2FY23 declined 76.6%/32.8% YoY to INR17.9bn/INR17.4bn, on a high YoY base</li><li>In H1FY23, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR31.3bn/INR32.2bn vs INR132.8bn/INR37.0bn YoY</li><li>Q2FY23 revenue increased 7.3% YoY, led by moderate growth in the transmission (+7.4% YoY) and telecom (+7.3% YoY) segments, partially offset by a 25.9% YoY decline in consultancy income</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation/Capex in Q2FY23 declined 76.6%/32.8% YoY to INR17.9bn/INR17.4bn, on a high YoY baseIn H1FY23, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR31.3bn/INR32.2bn vs INR132.8bn/INR37.0bn YoYQ2FY23 revenue increased 7.3% YoY, led by moderate growth in the transmission (+7.4% YoY) and telecom (+7.3% YoY) segments, partially offset by a 25.9% YoY decline in consultancy incomeContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Britannia Industries, Cummins, Aditya Birla Capital

<ul><li>Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)</li><li>ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volume</li><li>Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volumeDemand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

<ul><li>We hosted a multi-sector channel check, wherein we hosted participants from auto, FMCG, durable, building materials, jewellery, cement and real estate</li><li>The meetings were represented by senior and experienced channel partners, CXOs of unlisted companies, and industry experts</li><li>Our primary objective was to check festive season demand along with overall consumption environment, particularly since industries have seen one of the toughest retail inflation environments.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted a multi-sector channel check, wherein we hosted participants from auto, FMCG, durable, building materials, jewellery, cement and real estateThe meetings were represented by senior and experienced channel partners, CXOs of unlisted companies, and industry expertsOur primary objective was to check festive season demand along with overall consumption environment, particularly since industries have seen one of the toughest retail inflation environments.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reality Check: Festive checks—positive trend

<ul><li>Dabur: Dabur’s Q1 revenue growth and EBITDA margin were in line</li><li>Revenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 8%), with three-year CAGR at 7%</li><li>Domestic revenue/volume grew 10/5% YoY, with three-year CAGR at 12/8% vs HUL 9/2%, Nestle 11/7%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur: Dabur’s Q1 revenue growth and EBITDA margin were in lineRevenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 8%), with three-year CAGR at 7%Domestic revenue/volume grew 10/5% YoY, with three-year CAGR at 12/8% vs HUL 9/2%, Nestle 11/7%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Dabur, Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, GAIL (India)

India

Britannia Industries Ltd is an Indian multinational food products company, primarily manufacturing and selling biscuits, bread, and dairy products. Approximately 80% of its revenue comes from biscuit products, with popular brands like Good Day, Marie Gold, and Tiger. The company is headquartered in Kolkata, India, and was founded in 1892.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Britannia Industries, Cummins, Aditya Birla Capital

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation/Capex in Q2FY23 declined 76.6%/32.8% YoY to INR17.9bn/INR17.4bn, on a high YoY base

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the...

HDFC Securities

Reality Check: Festive checks—positive trend

We hosted a multi-sector channel check, wherein we hosted participants from auto, FMCG, durable, building materials, jewellery, cement and real estate

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Dabur, Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, GAIL (India)

Revenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 8%), with three-year CAGR at 7%. Domestic revenue/volume grew 10/5% YoY, with three-year CAGR at 12/8% vs HUL 9/2%,...

HDFC Securities

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